The economic growth in the third quarter increased macroeconomics is expected to rebound slightly in the fourth quarter

Although the Chinese economy has a long-term recovery, the economic operation in the third quarter has sent many favorable signals, indicating that the economic warm color is increasing. Experts believe that the pessimism of the Chinese media to the Chinese economy is not enough. With the effects of various measures of steady growth, the Chinese economy is expected to achieve a slight rebound in the fourth quarter.
Recent positive factors are accumulating "From the economic data of the third quarter, some positive factors are accumulating in the near future." Yu Bin, director of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said recently. From the perspective of international factors, first, a new round of loose monetary policy has prompted the world economy to improve in the short term. Countries such as Europe, the United States, Britain and Japan have successively implemented loose monetary policies. In the short term, they will help stabilize the financial market and boost consumer confidence. China's export growth will gradually pick up. Second, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) has improved overall. In September, the PMI index of the United States, the European Union, Japan and emerging market countries rebounded, and China's PMI index also ended a four-month decline. At the same time, the overall commodity prices have rebounded, and China's raw material purchase index has stopped falling.
From the perspective of domestic factors, my domestic demand needs to stabilize and rebound in the short term. Yu Bin said that with the recovery in infrastructure investment and the recovery of the real estate market, investment growth has increased. From January to September, fixed asset investment increased by 20.5%, 0.3 percentage points faster than that of January-August. With the rebound in real estate sales and the “11” holiday, the actual growth rate of consumption is higher than that of the previous year. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods actually increased by 11.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the same period of the previous year.
Zhu Hongren, chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, believes that the favorable factors for the current industrial economic operation are gathering and the development momentum is good. Under the complicated and severe international situation and the continued shrinking of external demand, in the first three quarters, the added value of China's above-scale industries maintained a growth rate of 10%, achieving sustained and rapid growth.
Experts believe that the "three troikas" of investment, consumption and exports have begun to exert their strength, indicating that the positive factors in China's macro economy are gradually accumulating, and the economic operation has shifted from slow to stable to bottoming. In particular, the driving effect of consumption on the economy has been continuously improved, and the contribution rate of final consumption to GDP has reached 55%; the export growth rate has also rebounded sharply to 9.9% in September. Considering the Christmas factor in the fourth quarter and the signs of improvement in the European and American financial markets, it is expected that exports will maintain a moderate recovery in the fourth quarter.
The growth rate of the industry may be higher than that of the third quarter. "Overall, the momentum of China's industrial economy has stabilized since the third quarter is expected to remain stable, and it is expected that there will be positive changes in the fourth quarter." Zhu Hongren said that with the effect of steady growth policy, The momentum of economic stabilization will be further consolidated. The growth rate of industrial production in the fourth quarter may be higher than that in the third quarter, which will lay a good foundation for achieving the expected target of annual GDP growth of over 7.5%.
The Chinese economy is expected to show a slight rebound in the fourth quarter. Yu Bin believes that under the background of the repeated deterioration of the European debt crisis, the continued sluggish global economy, the active regulation of the real estate market, the resolution of investment and financing platform risks and the promotion of structural adjustment, the main macroeconomic indicators have basically reached the expected targets, and the achievements are hard-won. The annual GDP growth is expected to be slightly higher than 7.5%.
Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities Asia, believes that the current economic downturn has been contained. In October, the initial value of HSBC's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1, 1.2 percentage points higher than the median value in September, setting a new high in three months. The economic recovery and recovery momentum is becoming more and more obvious.
Industry experts pointed out that the continuation of the recovery of manufacturing activities shows that the effects of a series of policy measures introduced in the early stage have gradually emerged, domestic demand has picked up, and corporate confidence has rebounded. It is expected that the fourth quarter will see a moderate recovery.
The foundation for stable growth is still weak. When the economic situation improves, it is also a crucial period for steady growth. Experts generally believe that although the current situation of economic stabilization is relatively obvious, there are still many unstable and uncertain factors at home and abroad, and the foundation for maintaining stable economic growth is still not solid. We must continue to place steady growth in a more important position and effectively implement the various policies and measures that have been put in place to stabilize growth, adjust the structure, and benefit the people's livelihood.
"The world economy is still in a period of adjustment, problems such as inadequate structural adjustment and weak demand growth are difficult to fundamentally change, and the impact of the financial crisis is showing a long-term trend." Yu Bin believes that the current developed countries implement re-manufacturing strategies to the Internet, The third industrial revolution represented by new energy is on the rise. At the same time, a new round of global monetary easing competition is in the ascendant, which will have an impact on China's short-term capital flows and rising prices. In addition, the developed economies are forced to implement tightening fiscal policies in response to sovereign debt pressures, which is not conducive to the advancement of structural reforms and limits the ability of the government to support demand expansion.
Taking into account the current domestic and international economic situation, Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, suggested that the future should adhere to the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. In terms of monetary policy, based on anti-inflation considerations, there is no need to further increase the money supply; in terms of fiscal policy, it is mainly to implement the structural tax reduction measures that have been introduced and implement the investment in various people's livelihood projects.

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