China's mineral reserves have not yet formed a complete institutional system, mostly in individual and temporary development. With the deepening of the industrialization process, the transformation of the economic structure, and the strengthening of the exploitation and trade protection of domestic resources by all countries, China's resource bottlenecks have become increasingly prominent. It is urgent to establish a standardized, stable and effective metal reserve system, and the existing mineral reserve system of each country. Can be used as a useful reference. The mineral reserve system of the world's mineral reserves compares the reserve of strategic minerals and scarce minerals with strong supply vulnerability to ensure national security (including national defense and economic security). It is usually divided into two categories. First, "mineral product strategic reserve"; second, "mineral resources strategic base reserve." The initial motivation for the reserves of mineral resources in the world is mainly to meet the needs of war, that is, the purpose of national defense security. Crude oil was the main target in the early stage. On the eve of World War II in 1939, the United States passed the Strategic Material Reserve Act. On the eve of the Vietnam War, the United States passed the national defense production law, and the strategic reserve of solid mineral products (metal minerals dominated) originated here. In the 1990s, with the end of the Cold War, a new pattern of world political economy was formed, and the purpose of mineral resources reserves of various countries was also changed from national defense security to economic security. The variety and scale of mineral reserves have changed. Especially after the financial crisis, the search for new growth engines has become more urgent. As a core raw material for scarce resources and emerging industries, small metals have gradually become the "new" of strategic storage and storage in various countries. At present, the United States, Japan, France, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Finland, the United Kingdom, South Korea and other 10 countries have established a relatively complete strategic reserve system for mineral products. China's mineral reserves have not yet formed a complete institutional system, mostly in individual and temporary development. With the deepening of the industrialization process, the transformation of the economic structure, and the strengthening of the exploitation and trade protection of domestic resources by all countries, China's resource bottlenecks have become increasingly prominent. It is urgent to establish a standardized, stable and effective metal reserve system, and the existing mineral reserve system of each country. Can be used as a useful reference. The United States: the government-led "extended" reserve system The United States was the first country to implement mineral reserves. Its institutional system has undergone more than 60 years of evolution and transformation, forming a complete operational management mechanism. The US's mineral resources reserve is funded by the government (the reserve budget is spent from "transaction funds" and "operating funds") and is managed by specialized government agencies. The advantage of this approach is that it facilitates the macro control of resource reserves to meet the needs of national strategies; the disadvantage is that it increases government fiscal pressure. In 1993, the United States’ large-scale reduction of strategic material reserve targets was also based on the need to reduce fiscal pressure. After the financial crisis in the United States, the fiscal deficit problem has become increasingly serious. In 2013, it will face the threat of “fiscal cliffsâ€. It is expected that the scale of mineral reserves will not expand significantly. In terms of reserve scale, the United States is the largest of all countries with mineral reserves, and the country with the largest variety, with 63 categories and 63 species, including 30 kinds of metal mineral raw materials, 59 kinds (including rare metals, 24 types, 48 ​​kinds, accounting for all reserves). More than half of the species); 21 non-metallic mineral materials in 19 categories; 13 other 12 species. The reserve target has been adjusted several times in different periods. It is currently the material needed for the first three years in the event of a large-scale conventional war. The rest of the country is generally several months to one year. In terms of mineral reserve sources, the United States has been pursuing an "extensional" expansion. Although it is a large mineral resource country, even its own superior resources will increase its reserves through import methods, and the corresponding domestic resources will be long-term mining, stop mining, and only Unexplored, such as uranium, petroleum, and rare earth. In addition, more than ten kinds of metals such as chromium, platinum group metals and tungsten are considered to be the most important strategic materials in the United States, and they are the key varieties of reserves. Currently, the main suppliers are Canada, the former Soviet Union, South Africa, Brazil and other countries. China: It is advisable to establish a reserve system in which the government and enterprises complement each other. China's mineral resources reserve system sprouted in 2006, and gradually advanced to a strategic height after the financial crisis, and was included in various comprehensive mining policies. In recent years, China has made many beneficial attempts in the collection and storage of mineral resources, such as copper storage in 2005, storage and storage of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and indium from 2008 to 2009, and rare earth storage and storage from 2009 to 2012. Wait. However, it has always stayed at the level of temporary decision-making and operation, and has not formed a complete system norm. China's mineral resources are well-differentiated, with advantages such as tungsten, molybdenum, tin, antimony and antimony, as well as strategic resources such as copper, petroleum and iron ore. What is more noteworthy is that due to strong domestic demand, there is widespread over-exploitation in both shortages and dominant minerals. Rare earths, strontium, manganese, cobalt in small metals, aluminum and lead in base metals, and oil, coal, and iron. Ore and other conditions are more serious. Therefore, it is extremely urgent for China to establish a complete mineral resource reserve system. Combined with the reserve minerals of various countries and the actual situation in China, two types of resources can be used as reserve targets. One is strategic or scarce resources, such as copper, petroleum, aluminum, cobalt, chromium, manganese, nickel, etc. These varieties are generally stored and stored in various countries. Minerals, indicating that they occupy an important position in economic development, and China does not have advantages in both production and reserves; second, superior resources such as rare earths, antimony, tungsten, antimony, molybdenum, vanadium, indium, tin, etc. It is also the focus of countries' purchasing and storage, especially after the financial crisis, and China has been lacking in industry governance and resource protection, resulting in over-exploitation and low-cost exports, which has weakened international pricing power. In the form of purchasing and storage, it is possible to adopt the two methods of "mineral product strategic reserve" and "mineral resource strategic base reserve". In the past two years, international trade disputes concerning rare earths have continued. China has started construction of mineral reserve bases since 2010. Recently, the rare earth mineral product reserve system is about to surface, becoming the vanguard of China's mineral reserve system construction. On the main body of the reserve and storage, the combination of national reserve and private reserve can be adopted. At present, the operation of the national reserve is mainly handled by the State Material Reserve Bureau under the NDRC. The funds are funded by the state finance, and are considered for strategic and financial security considerations. Storage operations are usually carried out in secret. Since the financial crisis, the main storage and storage categories of the State Reserve Bureau have been concentrated in aluminum, zinc, indium and rare earth. The private reserve adopts the principle of government encouragement and voluntary enterprise. Since 2008, private reserve methods have been more commonly used, and the government usually uses loans to subsidize the way to encourage enterprises to collect and store. The stocks included in the basic metals, dominant small metal minerals and scarce varieties (including tungsten, rare earth, antimony, indium, etc., newly added molybdenum, vanadium, titanium, etc.). Mineral reserves on metal prices The impact of corporate profits and the company's stock price on a certain scale of reserve operations affects the price trend of metals. When the mineral reserve system enters the actual operational level, it will have an immediate impact on the market price expectations of mineral products and the real supply and demand pattern. High prices, "throwing the store" will drive down the price. Of course, it needs to be based on a certain scale, and the impact is usually phased. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, China implemented a large-scale storage and storage at the bottom of the metal price, which was obvious for metal prices. We saw that from the end of 2008 to the first half of 2009, the State Reserve Bureau, Yunnan Province, and Henan Province concentrated on the storage and storage of basic metals, making the domestic metal price trend significantly stronger than the external disk, and the Shanghai-London ratio increased significantly. From November to December 2010, the State Reserve Bureau successively sold copper, aluminum, zinc and other reserves, and the corresponding domestic price trend was also weaker than the outer disk, resulting in a weaker ratio of Shanghai and Shanghai. Indium is a strategic scarce resource, and it is also an advantageous resource of China, and thus it has become an important target for purchasing and storage. From the end of 2008 to 2009, the State Reserve Bureau, Hunan Nonferrous Metals and Guangxi respectively implemented the storage and storage of indium. The China Storage Bureau and Guangxi have the largest reserves, reaching 30 tons and 50 tons respectively. We have seen the price of indium in these two periods. The increase is in line with the size of the reserve, and the rise in July is stronger and lasts longer. In January and April of 2009, enterprises in Chenzhou and Hunan Nonferrous Metals collected and stored tungsten concentrates respectively. Among them, the scale of storage in Zhangzhou was relatively large, reaching about 1 billion yuan. According to the average price of tungsten concentrate in 2009, it was about 61,000 yuan. The reserves are between 1.6 and 17,000 tons, and the price of tungsten concentrate has also increased significantly and is more sustainable. A few days ago, Zhangzhou once again started the tungsten concentrate storage and storage, aiming at stabilizing the price. The reserve is about 10,000 tons. Although the scale is smaller than the previous one, it is also expected to curb the further decline of tungsten price. According to our understanding, the current storage has not yet entered the implementation phase. Since 2009, the price of rare earth has continued to strengthen. In 2011, there has been a sharp rise and fall, and international trade frictions have continued. The implementation frequency of rare earth storage and storage is relatively high, and the system construction process is accelerating. In February 2010 and September 2011, the two storages of Baotou Steel's rare earths once caused price increases, the actual impact of supply and demand improvement, and market expectations. From mid-2011 to the second half of 2011, the State Reserve Bureau conducted pilot experiments on light rare earths and heavy rare earths, but due to the small scale, there was no impact on prices. After a round of major adjustments, the current price of rare earth has almost returned to the starting point of this round of big market, and the collection and storage coincides with the time. It is reported that the special plan for rare earth reserves will be introduced soon, and the market's optimistic expectations for rare earth prices will be strengthened, which will help prices rise in the current region. We continue to be optimistic about the trend of rare earth prices in the second half of the year. Due to the acceleration of the integration process, the policy intensity is overweight, and the impact of global supply shortage, the price of heavy rare earth has a greater room for recovery. The positive impact of national purchasing and storage on corporate earnings is clearer. From the perspective of China's practice of purchasing and storage in recent years, the state-level purchasing and storage is buy-and-buy, that is, the state purchases from enterprises, and enterprises realize sales and obtain profits, which can immediately increase revenue. Store business performance. In February 2009, the purchase price of 300,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum purchased by the State Reserve Bureau was higher than the market price by about 10%, and relevant enterprises could obtain income exceeding the market level. Private storage is usually a corporate loan, government subsidies. There are three main ways of purchasing and storing. One is the product pledge loan; the second is the loan buyout and storage, and the third is the independent investment and storage of the enterprise (Baogang Rare Earth, Hunan Nonferrous). The company can only reflect the performance when it sells the product, and the performance geometry depends on the difference between the product price and the storage price at the time of sale, so it is uncertain. From the actual situation, most of the enterprises get positive returns from the storage, for example, the gross profit margin of Zhangyuan Tungsten's tungsten ore concentrate in 2009 is 6.69%; Hunan non-ferrous metal reserves for the year of 2010 contributed 1.5~ 2 billion yuan in profits. The advantage of private storage is that on the one hand, the variety of storage and storage is more diversified and flexible; on the other hand, the credit crunch and the tight cash flow are an effective financing channel. The expectation of purchasing and storage is expected to drive the stock price increase and storage operation to have a phased impact on metal prices, which will also have a positive impact on corporate profits, which will help support the trend of non-ferrous metal sectors. Since the beginning of this year, the performance of the small metal sector far exceeds the market and non-ferrous metals index, and the market's policy expectations for small metal storage are important supporting factors. The recent special plan for rare earth reserves will be first introduced, and the stock prices of related companies are expected to remain relatively strong under the support of expected reserves. The key companies include Guangshao Nonferrous Metals, Baotou Steel Rare Earth and Xiamen Tungsten Industry. We judge that as metal prices continue to weaken, special plans or comprehensive plans for metal reserves such as tungsten, molybdenum, tin, antimony and antimony may be introduced one after another. Relevant companies have staged performance opportunities under the support of policy expectations. Key companies include Xiamen Tungsten Industry, Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry, Jinmo Molybdenum, *ST Refining Stone, Tin Industry, Chenzhou Mining, Yunnan Shengye, Chihong Zinc.
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