**Steel City's Haze Retreats Before Stabilizing**
As the Spring Festival holiday approached, the steel market gradually lost its momentum. With traders leaving early, the domestic steel market was expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations in the week leading up to the holiday (February 4–8, 2013). However, with expectations of a strong spring market and increased winter stockpiling by traders, along with post-holiday "after-sales" inertia, the domestic steel market is anticipated to see a steady rise in the week following the holiday (February 18–22).
According to the weekly price forecast model from the Lange Steel Information Research Center, the domestic steel market prices are expected to fluctuate slightly before the holiday. After the holiday, prices are projected to rise modestly, with long products seeing a small increase and plate markets experiencing a more stable upward trend. The Lange Steel Price Index is expected to hover around 154.9 points, with an average steel price of approximately 4,030 yuan. The average pull-up rate is expected to be around 30–40 yuan. The Lange Steel Long Products Index is forecasted to fluctuate around 168.4, rising by about 1 point, while the Sheet Metal Price Index is expected to be around 138.6, up by about 1.2 points.
Market research from the Lange Steel Information Research Center also indicates that after the holiday, long product prices will rise slightly, while plate market prices will show a more sustained increase. Raw material prices are expected to follow a similar trend. Iron ore prices are predicted to rise by 10–20 yuan, coke prices will remain stable, scrap prices are expected to climb by 30 yuan, and billet prices could increase by 90–110 yuan.
In the fifth week of 2013 (January 28–February 1), the Lange Steel Composite Price Index (LGMI) reached 153.8 points, reflecting a 0.69% weekly increase and an 8.79% year-on-year decline. The long products index was at 167.4 points, up 0.56% weekly but down 12.20% year-on-year. The sheet metal index was 137.4 points, up 0.89% weekly but down 3.29% year-on-year.
According to market monitoring, during this period, 17 out of 44 categories of iron and steel raw materials and products saw price increases, with 35 varieties rising compared to 29 the previous week. The iron ore and billet markets saw notable gains, with iron ore up by 10 yuan and billet up by 40–70 yuan.
Steel inventories across the country rose sharply, with a six-week consecutive rebound. On February 1, total steel stocks in 29 key cities reached 13,933,300 tons, up 4.76% from the previous week. Wire rod inventories increased by 9.73%, rebar by 7.56%, and coil screw inventories by 21.76%. Hot rolled coils saw a slight increase of 0.51%, while cold rolled coils and other categories showed marginal declines.
Macroeconomic factors also influenced steel prices. In 2012, profits for large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year-on-year, reaching 557.58 billion yuan. Key industries such as agricultural processing, general machinery, and electrical equipment saw significant growth, while ferrous metal smelting and rolling declined sharply.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development launched the first batch of national smart city pilots, aiming to explore a new urbanization model. Meanwhile, the China Development Bank committed 80 billion yuan in funding over three years for smart city development.
China’s manufacturing PMI for January 2013 stood at 50.4%, indicating continued expansion in the sector. The HSBC Manufacturing PMI hit a two-year high of 52.3, signaling improved manufacturing activity.
Globally, crude steel production in 2012 reached a record high of 1,547.8 million tons, with China accounting for 46% of global output. However, China's growth slowed to 3.1%, the lowest in four years. Major steel producers like Hebei Iron and Steel and Shougang reported significant losses in 2012 due to weak demand and falling prices.
The steel industry PMI for January 2013 was 45.3%, showing a slight contraction, though some sub-indexes indicated improving confidence and inventory levels.
On the futures market, the rebar main contract (1305) rose by 1.31% on February 1, closing at 4,168 yuan/ton.
Downstream demand remained sluggish, with China's shipbuilding industry expecting continued declines in 2013 due to reduced orders and rising costs. Railway construction investment for 2013 was set at 520 billion yuan, with multiple funding sources supporting the project.
Construction machinery production and sales remained relatively flat in December 2012, with some sectors showing strong growth, particularly in specialized machinery for construction materials.
Overall, the steel market was navigating a complex landscape of fluctuating demand, supply chain pressures, and macroeconomic shifts, with cautious optimism for recovery in the coming months.
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