**Steel City's Haze Retreats as Market Stabilizes**
As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the steel market has started to quiet down. With traders leaving early, the domestic steel market is expected to experience stable, moderate fluctuations during the week before the holiday (February 4–8, 2013). However, with expectations of a better market in spring, traders are likely to increase their winter stockpiles, and the "after-sales" inertia post-holiday is expected to push the domestic steel market upward in the week following the holiday (February 18–22).
According to the weekly price forecast model from the Lange Steel Information Research Center, the domestic steel market will see slight fluctuations before the holiday, followed by a small increase after the holiday. Long product prices are expected to rise slightly, while plate prices will show a more steady increase. The Lange Steel Price Index is projected to hover around 154.9 points, with an average steel price of about 4,030 yuan per ton and an average increase of 30–40 yuan. The long product index is expected to fluctuate around 168.4, rising by 1.0 point, while the sheet metal index is expected to be around 138.6, up by 1.2 points.
Market research from the Lange Steel Information Research Center also indicates that long product prices will see a modest rise, and plate prices will increase steadily. Raw material prices, including iron ore, are expected to rise by 10–20 yuan, coke prices will remain stable, scrap prices will increase by 30 yuan, and billet prices will climb by 90–110 yuan.
In the fifth week of 2013 (January 28–February 1), the Lange Steel Composite Price Index (LGMI) reached 153.8 points, marking a 0.69% weekly increase and an 8.79% year-on-year decline. The long products index was at 167.4 points, up 0.56% on the week, but down 12.20% from the same period last year. The sheet price index stood at 137.4 points, a 0.89% weekly gain, but still down 3.29% compared to the previous year.
During this week, 35 out of 44 steel product categories saw price increases, while only one fell. Iron ore prices rose by 10 yuan, coke prices increased by 10 yuan, scrap remained stable, and billet prices climbed by 40–70 yuan.
Steel inventories across the country rose significantly this week, with total steel stocks in 29 key cities reaching 13,933,300 tons on February 1—up 633,300 tons from the previous week, or 4.76%. Wire rod inventory increased by 9.73%, rebar by 7.56%, and coil inventory by 21.76%.
Looking at macroeconomic factors, industrial profits for enterprises above designated size in 2012 grew by 5.3% year-on-year, reaching 557.58 billion yuan. While some industries like electrical machinery and computer manufacturing saw strong growth, others such as ferrous metal smelting and rolling faced steep declines.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced the first batch of national smart city pilots, aiming to promote a new urbanization model. China’s Manufacturing PMI for January 2013 stood at 50.4%, showing continued stability in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI hit a two-year high of 52.3, signaling improved manufacturing activity.
Globally, crude steel production in 2012 reached a record high of 1,547.8 million tons, with China accounting for 46% of the total. However, China’s growth rate dropped to 3.1%, the lowest in four years. Major steel companies reported significant profit declines, with many facing losses in 2012.
The steel industry PMI for January 2013 was 45.3%, indicating contraction, though slightly reduced compared to the previous month. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the rebar main contract rose 1.31% on February 1.
Downstream demand remains mixed. China’s shipbuilding industry expects declining performance in 2013 due to falling orders and rising costs. Meanwhile, railway construction investment in 2013 is set to reach 520 billion yuan, supporting infrastructure growth.
Construction machinery output and sales in December 2012 showed mixed results, with some sectors seeing strong growth while others struggled. Overall, the steel market is navigating a complex landscape of supply, demand, and macroeconomic pressures, with signs of gradual recovery ahead.
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