Prediction of Cement Price in the Fourth Quarter

The cement market situation in the first half of this year was excellent, and the price of cement also rose up. However, since June, under the influence of many factors such as demand, cement prices have begun to turn sharply, and there has been no sign of recovery in the peak season in October. In the fourth quarter, how will cement prices go? The author learned that in the fourth quarter, electricity shortage and coal shortage will hit the cement industry this winter, and the lack of coal and electricity will definitely affect the production of cement; on the Other hand, the higher coal price due to shortage of coal and electricity will increase cement to some extent. the cost of. On the demand level, the 4 trillion yuan of water conservancy investment this winter and spring, and the improvement of the environment of the Ministry of Railways have all stimulated the growth of demand to some extent. Based on various factors, the cement price in the fourth quarter is expected to oscillate upwards.

Supporting factor 1: The electricity shortage is approaching. The author learned from Huazhong Power Grid Company that the 6 provinces and cities in China are expected to face the most severe power supply shortage in the coming few years. The maximum electricity load will exceed 12772 million kilowatts in the summer. The power gaps in the six provinces and cities under the jurisdiction of Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Henan, Sichuan and Chongqing are approximately 16 million kilowatts.

According to the forecast of the power grid situation of Huazhong Power Grid Corporation in the current winter, the whole network power load continues to grow at a high rate, mainly due to two reasons: First, the key reservoirs are generally under water, and the water storage in the late Sui Dynasty is insufficient. The thermal coal power supply is becoming increasingly tense. Secondly, there are power gaps in the six provinces and cities in the region and in neighboring North China and Northwest China power grids. Cross-provincial and inter-regional power supply allocation resources are limited.

Looking at other regions of the country, the situation of power supply this winter is not optimistic. The author learned from the China Southern Grid Corporation's 2011 summer peaking and wind prevention and flood prevention summary meeting held in October that from the fourth quarter to 2012, the largest power gap in the entire network of China Southern Power Grid is expected to be 15-18 million kilowatts.

It is reported that the largest electricity gap is in Guangdong, which will reach 6-10 million kilowatts, 3 million kilowatts in Guangxi, 2 million kilowatts in Yunnan, and 200,000 kilowatts in Hainan.

The "Analysis and Forecast Report on China's Electricity Supply and Demand and Economic Operation Situation (First Three Quarters of 2011)" issued by CEC recently stated that the overall power consumption was generally strong in the first three quarters, and the country's total social power consumption was 355.7 billion kWh, an increase of 11.95% over the same period of last year. It is expected that the electricity consumption in the fourth quarter will increase by 13%, and the entire society will use 4.7 trillion kwh of electricity. The report also predicts that electricity supply and demand will be tight this winter and next spring.

In the wake of the power shortage, electricity prices also face the possibility of upward adjustment. It is understood that power companies are facing the most severe operating pressure since 2008. Under the background of eased inflationary pressures, the necessity and possibility of the recent increase in power prices nationwide are further increasing. At the same time, the new emission standards for thermal power plants that began to be implemented on January 1 next year will also increase the urgency of increasing the price of electricity.

The advent of electricity shortages will affect the production of cement, and the increase in electricity prices will directly increase the cost of cement. Under such circumstances, there seems to be ample possibility of price increases.

Support factor 2: Coal prices rise As the weather gets colder, the supply of coal has started to become tight. Relevant statistics show that coal stocks in many places are in an emergency. Currently, coal shortages have begun to appear in various parts of the country. The supply of coal is at a tighter level, and prices have also shown an upward trend. Many market participants believe that the current period has entered a sensitive period of coal supply and price increases.

On October 26, Qinhuangdao CoalNet announced the new average price of Bohai Bohai steam coal, which was quoted at RMB 853 per ton for the current period, which was a 0.71% increase from the previous quarter and a year-on-year increase of 14%. Since August 31st, it has risen for eight consecutive weeks and set a record high.

The price of thermal coal in northern Shanxi also increased, and the price of coal pits in Datong and Cangzhou increased slightly by 5-10 yuan/ton.

Professor Zhang Jie of North China Electric Power University pointed out that China's electricity structure is dominated by coal-fired electricity. According to the current power demand gap and growth rate, coal production capacity is still not enough, and in the future it is certainly a state of increasing tension. In the expected tight supply situation, coal prices will naturally rise.

Li Chaolin, a coal expert, believes that as winter approaches, the demand for coal has increased relatively, and production has not increased at the same time. The tight supply has increased the price of coal. Looking at the current rise, the price will reach the highest level this year, but it will be lower than the highest level in 2008. , which is the highest level after 2008.

Industry sources pointed out that coal prices will continue to rise during the period to come, which may in turn aggravate the tight electricity supply in some regions.

With regard to the rise in coal prices, industry insiders in the cement industry said that this will have a serious impact on cement companies that account for more than 60% of the cost, which will directly increase the cost of cement companies.

Supporting factors 3: demand recovery Analysis from the demand level, the improvement of the high-speed railway environment, 240 billion yuan of large-scale water conservancy investment, and the start of a large number of affordable housing projects will stimulate cement consumption to some extent.

It is understood that the scale of the Ministry of Railways has recently expanded to 250 billion yuan. After the success, the flow of funds became the next focus of attention. The Ministry of Railways stated that it has made specific arrangements for the use of funds. According to this arrangement, the Ministry of Railways will allocate the project arrears in place by November 20 to ensure the continuous construction of the railway projects under construction.

The author understands that, in addition to repaying some of the suppliers’ payment, the RMB 250 billion will be focused on restoring the construction of key railway construction projects. Industry sources pointed out that some key railway construction projects, such as the Beijing-Kazakhstan high-speed rail, Beijing-Shijiazhuang-Wuhan high-speed railway, the Qinghai-Tibet railway Xinguanjiao tunnel, the Jituo-Qingdao railway, and the Beijing North Railway Station-Zhangjiakou energy transportation line will be the capital The focus of the arrangement, and the new construction of Lanzhou-Chongqing Railway and the construction of the new Lanzhou-Xinjiang Railway may also be within the scope of financial protection.

Analysts pointed out that this time most of the 250 billion yuan will come from banks, and the continuation of the latter period may occur in the form of railway construction bonds. According to statistics, the Ministry of Railways issued two railway construction bonds worth 40 billion yuan in October. Some people have speculated that according to the issuance rate of 80 billion yuan in 2010, the Ministry of Railways will also carry out the bond market.

Water conservancy construction will also enter the peak. Chinese Minister of Water Resources Chen Lei recently said in Beijing that the total investment in China's farmland water conservancy construction will increase by more than 10% over the previous year, exceeding 240 billion yuan***, and farmers’ investment in labor will increase by more than 5%, exceeding 3.58 billion yuan. The total amount of earth and stone has been increased by more than 15% to more than 9.7 billion cubic meters; the major benefit indicators such as the newly-added land area for drought and flood protection and irrigation area have been significantly better than the previous year.

Utilizing the investment and labor input mentioned above, China will continue to improve its own irrigation system for farmland, increase irrigated area, build drought-resistant water source projects, develop efficient and water-saving irrigation, and strengthen rural drinking water safety and water and soil conservation and ecological construction. Chen Lei said that he will strive to increase the water-saving irrigation area of ​​more than 30 million mu this winter and next spring to ensure that the drinking water safety of 60 million rural residents will be solved again next year. A person in the cement industry stated that the construction of farmland water conservancy and infrastructure construction will play a positive role in promoting the cement industry.

If Chen Lei’s stated investment of RMB 240 billion is fully implemented, this will refresh China’s investment record for farmland water conservancy. Last spring this winter, China invested 216.3 billion yuan in infrastructure construction for irrigation and water conservancy, which was a year-on-year increase of 43.8%. It was the year with the highest investment and largest increase since 1949; cumulative labor input was 3.41 billion working days, an increase of 12.7%. It is the year that the number of laborers who have invested and worked in 2000 has increased the most.

The start-up of railway projects and the huge investment in water conservancy are a good news for the cement industry. The growth in cement demand has contributed to the recent sluggish cement industry.

In addition, a large number of affordable housing starts, doubled the scope of the building materials to the countryside, and the Ministry of Commerce to push bulk cement, all of which support the cement plate in an all-round way. The demand for cement in the fourth quarter will recover to a large extent.

To sum up, the double torment of the electric shortage of coal will make the lack of cement production and increase the cost, and the start of a large number of infrastructure projects will in turn drive demand for cement. Under this situation of supply and demand, the cement price in the fourth quarter is likely to rise.

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