Summary I. Basic Situation In the first half of 2014, due to the rapid expansion of the PV market in China and Japan, and the impact of pre-shipment due to the “double-reverse†in the US, the demand for battery components was rapidly expanding and the price remained high. Level, business operation status has...
First, the basic situation In the first half of 2014, due to the rapid expansion of the PV market in China and Japan, and the impact of pre-shipment due to the “double-reverse†in the US, the demand for battery components expanded rapidly, and prices remained at a high level. There is a big improvement. In the first half of 2014, the total capacity of batteries and components exceeded 40GW, the module output was about 15.5GW, the output of battery chips reached 14GW, the output of silicon wafers reached 18GW, and the output of polysilicon reached 66,000 tons. According to the statistics of 57 PV module companies, the total component sales revenue in the first half of 2014 was 72.2 billion yuan, the profit was 1.52 billion yuan, and the average profit margin was 2.1%. Profitable enterprises accounted for 57% of the sample, the average profit rate was 5.1%, the total production capacity was 33.7GW, the total output was 13.1GW, and the capacity utilization rate was about 77.7%, including 1.26GW for single crystal modules and 11.7 for polycrystalline components. GW, the ratio of single polycrystal is about 1:10, the total export volume is 7.3GW, and the export weight is about 53.2%.
From the camp, the profitability of the company is still not optimistic. Among the 57 enterprises reported, the total sales revenue was 72.22 billion yuan, 34 profitable enterprises, profit profit was 2.37 billion yuan, and the average profit margin of profitable enterprises was 3.3%. In the loss-making enterprises, the total loss reached 10.1. 100 million yuan, the average profit rate is -4.2%, if other small and medium-sized enterprises are taken into account, the amount of losses will be higher, especially the profit of some profitable enterprises is contributed by other businesses of the company. In fact, the total photovoltaic business should still be a loss.
From the perspective of component conversion efficiency, technological progress is more obvious. The average conversion efficiency of polycrystalline components is 15.67%, and the average conversion efficiency of single crystal components is about 16.2%. However, it can be seen from the other side that the conversion efficiency of single crystal components is only 0.53 percentage points higher than that of polycrystalline components. The conversion efficiency of the crystalline battery is 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the polycrystalline battery. The efficiency loss is more obvious after being packaged into a single crystal component, which indirectly leads to a lower cost performance of the single crystal component than the polycrystalline one, and the market share decline is more obvious.
From the perspective of the development area, the components are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Hebei provinces. The number of enterprises in Jiangsu Province is 26, accounting for 45.6% of the number of enterprises, the module production capacity is 18.6GW, the output is 7GW, accounting for 53.8% of the national total capacity, the component capacity of Zhejiang Province is 6.4GW, and the output is 2.57GW, accounting for 19.7% of the country's total, Hebei Province's module production capacity is about 3165MW, the output is about 1438MW, accounting for about 11% of the country's total output.
From the perspective of the export region, the export market has shown a diversified development trend. Japan has become China’s largest exporter, the United States is the second largest exporter, and Europe’s exports rank third. It is worth noting that exports to Hong Kong, Singapore, the Philippines and Taiwan have begun to increase, reaching a total of 1,328 MW. In order to circumvent trade, in order to avoid the "double-reverse" trade risk of global photovoltaics, many enterprises will transfer components to these areas first, and then re-export to the United States, Europe and other places to fight the ball. As can be seen from the export prices, the prices of components exported to these places are relatively low, and the average price is between 3.6-3.8 yuan/watt, which is significantly lower than that of direct exports to Europe, Japan and the United States (price is 4 yuan). In fact, this is not a long-term solution. The EU has already started relevant investigations and started to crack down on entrepot trade. The future situation is not optimistic.
Second, the development characteristics
The concentration of production capacity continues to increase. The total output capacity of the 15 largest component enterprises reached 24.9GW, accounting for 78.5% of the total production capacity, with a production of 10.6GW, accounting for 83.4% of the total output. The capacity utilization rate is about 85.4%, which is higher than the average capacity utilization rate of 6.6. Percentage points. The total capacity of the top ten enterprises reached 20GW, and the average production capacity of each enterprise reached 2GW, and the output reached 8.66GW, accounting for 68.1% of the total output. The 15 largest battery companies with the largest output have a total capacity of 19.7GW, a production capacity of about 9GW, and a capacity utilization rate of about 91%, accounting for about 80% of the total output.
Capacity utilization is at a reasonable level. The statistical component utilization rate of the component enterprises reached 78.8%, and the battery capacity utilization rate was 80%, which was at a relatively high level. According to the empirical data of research institutions such as the United States, the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry is between 78% and 83%, which is a reasonable level. Therefore, it can be initially judged that the current industry capacity utilization rate is at a reasonable level. Although the current overall capacity data is still relatively large, considering that some equipment has been running for a long time, the product competitiveness is obviously not as good as the new equipment. It is expected that this part of the production capacity will be gradually eliminated (estimated to have 8CW) to eliminate this part of the production capacity. Overcapacity problems will be alleviated. However, if it is viewed from a global perspective, there may be a shortage of capacity in the short term.
Industrial development has gradually presented two levels of differentiation. Among the 31 companies with production capacity of 200MW-500MW, the average profit margin is -0.2%, and the average utilization rate is only 72%. If other companies that fail to meet the standard conditions are considered, the capacity utilization rate is expected to be lower. However, the capacity utilization rate of large enterprises is generally higher, and the profitability is also stronger. In enterprises with a production capacity higher than 50OMW, the average profit rate reaches 1.4%, and the capacity utilization rate also reaches 80.85%. The two indicators are significantly higher than the small and medium-sized photovoltaic enterprises. . In particular, some large enterprises have shifted to the downstream system integration side, and their profitability has improved significantly. The typical ones are Artes, Jingke and Zhengtai.
Polycrystalline batteries are still the mainstream in the market. According to the survey, the ratio of single crystal to polycrystalline components is about 1:12, mainly due to the superior cost performance of polycrystalline components, although the average conversion efficiency of single crystal cells is about 19%, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than 17.6% of polycrystalline cells. However, due to the chamfering of the single crystal battery, the component area is not fully utilized when manufacturing the component, and the efficiency loss is larger than the component. The average conversion efficiency of the fabricated polycrystalline component is 15.5%, and the average conversion efficiency of the single crystal component is about 16.2%, which is only 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the polycrystalline component, which greatly reduces the advantages of high efficiency of the single crystal cell. From the perspective of the battery, the ratio of single crystal and polycrystal is about 1:10, and the proportion of single crystal cells in the battery sheets exported to foreign countries is relatively high.
Exports remain high. According to the statistics of 51 enterprises, the component export volume is about 7.6GW, accounting for 59.8% of the total output. The export volume of enterprises with a capacity greater than 500MW reaches 6.5GW, and the export ratio reaches 67.8%, accounting for 85.5% of the total export. The export area is mainly concentrated in Japan, the United States and Europe. The export price in Europe is relatively high, with an average price of around US$0.75/W, the export price to the US is US$0.65/W, and the average export price to Japan is relatively low, at US$0.62. /Wat, mainly because the export products are for OEMs in Japan, and the export price is relatively low. Excluding this part of the products, the average export price of China to Japan is also around 0.65 US dollars / watt. The export volume of the battery is about 1.270W, accounting for 11.3% of the total output. The export area is mainly concentrated in Canada, South Korea and Taiwan.
Third, issues worthy of attention
There is still instability in the market. First, the market uncertainty, the PV market is still in the market economy under the guidance of the planned economy, the adjustment of policy changes is likely to cause greater fluctuations in the industry; the second is the lack of synergy in the PV policy, the PV industry involves more departments, but between the departments Often due to their own interests, they are not well coordinated, and the implementation of policies is not in place. Third, the local subsidy policy is exclusive, and the local government's economic interests and administrative interests are highly consistent, resulting in subsidy policies often with obvious local protection. It is not conducive to fair competition and mergers and integration in the industry; Fourth, market development should be rationally planned to avoid "advance consumption" to bring trouble to the subsequent development of the industry. The land and roof required for photovoltaic applications are scarce resources, and the increment is limited. The life of photovoltaic power plants is more than 20 years, and the liquidity is poor. It is necessary to avoid the lack of market strength due to the rapid expansion of the market and affect the sustainable development of the industry. Fifth, the export market is facing great uncertainty. The European market has shrunk and the price is limited. The Japanese market has insufficient stamina and may brake at any time. The US market has a "double-reverse" restriction, and emerging markets have not risen rapidly.
The problem of overcapacity in supply is still not to be ignored. First, the problem of overcapacity in China still exists. On the one hand, enterprises are expanding their production capacity through technological transformation or investment, and on the other hand, affected by the rapid expansion of the market, some idle production capacity has also started, component production capacity is still high, and some backward production capacity is in local governments. Under the policy asylum, it has not been able to withdraw in time. In the case that the export market is hampered, overcapacity will still plague the industry. Second, the progress of industrial mergers and acquisitions is slow. Due to factors such as thin profits in manufacturing, high financing costs and high homogeneity of products, enterprises are not willing to merge horizontally. Even if their production capacity is insufficient, they are often solved through subcontracting. Due to the close integration of local government economic interests and administrative interests, various methods and means may be adopted to obstruct enterprises in other regions to use local resources, which will also result in inefficient mergers. Third, price wars will remain ill, due to product The quality is high, and the products of each company are similar in performance and after-sales. In the case of tight supply and demand, the price war will become an important means for enterprises to obtain the market. Low-price competition may threaten product quality.
Corporate profitability is still not optimistic. First, there are only more than half of the enterprises that have turned losses. There are still many enterprises in a state of loss. Some profitable enterprises turn losses because of consolidated statements, and other businesses contribute profits, such as Hengdian East Magnetic, Huangming Solar, etc., and their photovoltaic business is still a loss; The profitability of enterprises is still weak, and most profitable enterprises are still on the verge of loss. Especially in the case that the current product prices start to go down, the follow-up development is not optimistic. Third, the financing difficulties are still plaguing enterprises, banks. Investment in the field of photovoltaic manufacturing is still cautious, maintaining the previous tightening, and the difficulty of bank financing for SMEs remains high.
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