Potash market may have warmer space

Last week, the price of salt lake has been lowered to the station price for nearly 10 days. The domestic potash fertilizer market as a whole has remained calm. Border trade, ports and other manufacturers in the Qinghai region have offered stable prices. There is no follow-up to the new salt lake price. Therefore, industry insiders said that the potash market should not be overly pessimistic.

It is understood that since the second quarter into the traditional off-season, the domestic market price of potash fertilizer has declined. At present, with the completion of the potash contract in the first half of the year, the volume of shipments will gradually decrease. In the second half of the Potash Fertilizer contract, on the one hand, the buyer was reluctant to accept price increases due to the sluggish domestic market, and on the other hand, international potash fertilizer market prices picked up, and many international suppliers indicated that the supply was tight and it was difficult to make a conclusion in the near future. After Jordan’s APC issued a statement in early July that its potassium chloride product will remain fully loaded until November to ensure supply, Potupex added potassium last week and said that orders have been placed in the fourth quarter despite full capacity production in previous months. There is no stock available before this. Belarusian potash BPC also stated that the supply of particulate potassium chloride will be very tight before September. After entering the third quarter, the supply of potassium chloride from Israeli ICL and German K+S particles will continue to be tight.

It is also known that although the domestic potash fertilizer stocks at the domestic ports have reached 1 million tons (of which 200,000 tons are in Zhanjiang Port, 440,000 tons in Qingdao and Yantai, and 25,000 tons in Guangxi Beihai and Fangcheng Port respectively), some of them are Sold. Only 500,000-600,000 tons are available for sale at the port, and the current prices for Russian red-potash and white-potash are all between 1950 and 2,000 yuan (t price, the same below). Compared to the large contract in the first half of the year, the price has basically bottomed out. And 62% of imported white potassium is the main source of fine chemicals and high-tower compound fertilizers, and domestic potash is difficult to replace. Therefore, if the signing of the contract is delayed in the second half of the year, the potash price will have room to pick up in the peak season.