2013 Photovoltaic Industry White Paper

In the upcoming 2013, with the anti-dumping and counter-subsidy camouflage, the trade “aggression” initiated by the United States and Europe against the Chinese PV industry has become increasingly hot, which once led to the emergence of this emerging industry that has made the country proud.

This year, as a media reporter who has long been concerned about the photovoltaic industry, he witnessed and recorded all this happening. Looking back now, the most praiseworthy and proud is that all walks of life across the country are struggling to attack and counter the ugly acts of trade barriers, but they have not forgotten their self-cultivation and introspection.

Perhaps based on this, and the heart of the Chinese PV industry, the reporter firmly believes that the Chinese nation has the ability to cultivate a global photovoltaic industry on the land of China. In the future, with the inherent advantages of solar energy applications and the breakthrough development of technologies such as photovoltaics and energy storage, “solar energy storage” can even have the opportunity to subvert the traditional model and become a true alternative energy source.

Although confidence in the future is overwhelming, reporters also want to use this special report to remind the Chinese PV industry: After the "wind and rain", the installed boom at the end of 2013 does not mean "winter to spring", or China PV The industry is only a "artificial spring", a chance to breathe. A little slack, for a long time in the future, even in the upcoming 2014, China's PV industry will still face a lot of crisis.

The Prime Minister is concerned about calming the "double opposition" chaos

The photovoltaic industry was once an industry that people are proud of. In this land of China, the Chinese nation used its unique wisdom and hard work. In just 10 years, it created a myth of growth that shocked the "original ancestors" of the ocean.
We must know that compared with China, the history of photovoltaic technology in the United States and Europe can be traced back to 70 years ago.

After the surprise, Americans and Europeans who have been “pretentious” in photovoltaic technology and even in science and technology have felt unprecedented anxiety. They finally decided to adopt trade barriers that had already been scorned, and attempted to “aggressive” China's photovoltaic industry and curb its development in order to continue to control the voice of the global PV market.

In October 2011, the United States took the lead in launching a “double anti-anti-dumping (counter-subsidy)” survey on solar panels exported from China, setting off a first-round attack against the Chinese PV industry.

In March 2012, despite the active protests from the domestic industry, the US Department of Commerce was bent on arbitrarily deciding to levy a minimum of 2.9% and a maximum of 4.73% of punitive “counter-subsidy” tariffs on Chinese PV products; on this basis, May 2012 The US Department of Commerce further made a preliminary ruling to levy a minimum of 31.14% and a maximum of 249.96% of punitive “anti-dumping” tariffs on Chinese PV products; in November 2012, the US announced that it would “will be on China’s PV The product was collected from 18.32% to 249.96% of “anti-dumping” tariffs, and the final result of 14.78% to 15.97% “countervailing” tariffs.

Just when the US "double opposition" disturbed the Chinese PV industry's uneasiness, the EU also tacitly cooperated with the United States. In September 2012, the company announced the “anti-dumping investigation” on the “anti-dumping investigation” of photovoltaic solar modules (crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules, cells and silicon wafers), and immediately announced the “anti-dumping” investigation in November 2012.

If the United States' "double opposition" to China is only to make China's photovoltaic industry uneasy, the EU's "double opposition" is like a fatal blow, almost killing its life.

As of the end of 2011, the European PV market accounted for 30% of the global market, while nearly 70% of China's PV products were exported to Europe. It can be said that since the day of its birth, China's photovoltaic industry has been tailored for the European market.

In the face of the sudden “face change” of the EU, China’s Ministry of Commerce, industry associations, leading enterprises and even foreign counterparts have taken a series of defenses, statements and even counter-measures in order to resolve the crisis of China’s photovoltaic industry and to maintain the stability of the global PV market. Measures.

In the end, in the attention of the Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang and personally under the command of the town, in July 2013, the Ministry of Commerce sent good news, China and the EU have reached a price commitment on China's trade disputes over the European PV products, before 2015, China's exports to Europe's photovoltaic products The price floor will be set at 0.56 Euro/W and the total amount will be limited to 7GW/year.

Compared with the expectation that “China’s PV products will be subject to a punitive tariff of 47.6%”, the “price commitment” is definitely a happy result. At the same time, don't forget that in 2013, in addition to the high-speed rail, the industry that Prime Minister Nolan can personally export is probably the only one in China's photovoltaic industry.

What is even more proud is that the pain of the "double anti-" has not killed the Chinese PV industry, but it has made it painful. The industry deeply understands that industrial development must not “depend on others”. China must build its own photovoltaic application market and actively explore emerging photovoltaic markets in order to achieve a global layout.

So far, in the cooperation of all walks of life, in 2013, the "double-reverse" chaos that has plagued China's PV for nearly two years has subsided.

Series of new policies, force the distribution of photovoltaic

It is the lesson of the "double-reverse" chaos that has made management and the industry more willing to accelerate the construction of China's PV application market.

In fact, in the nearly 10 months from March 2013 to the present, the management has launched a series of new policies to support the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, high-profile, large-scale and strong, covering the areas covered. The upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry, grid-connected, financial support, etc., are almost omnipotent.

Among them, "2014 China's photovoltaic power generation construction regulations are set to 12GW. Among them, distributed photovoltaic 8GW", "distributed photovoltaic power generation project price subsidy standard is set at 0.42 yuan per kWh" and "centralized photovoltaic power plant nationwide The three categories (divided by the length of sunshine), respectively, the implementation of the price of 0.9 yuan, 0.95 yuan, 1 yuan per kWh (on-grid price), these three figures and new regulations are quite critical for the Chinese PV industry. As a powerful supporter of the series of support policies, they have laid the foundation for the future development of China's photovoltaic industry.
The first of these three items comes from the Notice of the Interim Measures on the Management of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects issued by the National Energy Administration in November; the latter two are from the National Development and Reform Commission issued in August 2013. Notice of exerting price leverage to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry.

So, what do these numbers mean? According to the statistics released by the National Energy Administration on December 5, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China reached 10GW in 2013, of which 7GW was added to photovoltaic power plants and 3GW was added to distributed photovoltaic power generation.

In contrast, in 2014, in terms of newly installed PV capacity, the management set a total target of 20% higher than 2013; more plans to increase the proportion of newly installed distributed PV by 30% in 2013. Quickly pulled up to nearly 67%.

One leaf knows autumn. The management has clearly decided to vigorously develop the photovoltaic industry, and the strength is so great that many brother industries are far behind. At the same time, distribution has been established as the main line of the future PV application market in China.

In addition to the figures that reflect management's development of photovoltaic tone and guidelines, the latter two of the above three new policies are also significant.

First of all, "the price subsidy standard for distributed photovoltaic power generation projects is set at 0.42 yuan per kWh", which means that photovoltaic power generation can also be obtained on the basis of the cost of commercial electricity consumption of about 1 yuan / kWh (average price of electricity across the country). 0.42 yuan / degree subsidy. According to this calculation, the distributed self-use part of the photovoltaic power generation, the owner actually got an interest of about 1.42 yuan / kWh, and the "balance of the Internet" part, in theory, can only achieve 0.8 yuan / kWh - 0.9 yuan / kWh Revenue (the national average price of desulfurization thermal power on-grid electricity is 0.4 yuan / kWh, plus 0.42 yuan / kWh subsidy).
In line with the management's original intention of “the proportion of distributed PV is rapidly increasing from 30% in 2013 to nearly 67%”, the subsidy of 0.42 yuan/kWh for distributed photovoltaic power generation clearly shows that policy makers “encourage distributed”. And focus on encouraging strategic ideas for self-use.

As for the "centralized photovoltaic power plants nationwide divided into three categories (divided by the length of sunshine), the implementation of the price of 0.9 yuan per kWh, 0.95 yuan, 1 yuan of electricity price (on-grid price), the role of two: First, For financial institutions, the profit level of photovoltaic power plants (large-scale ground power stations) was clearly outlined, and the financing channels for the construction of photovoltaic power plants were opened up, which provided conditions for capitalization and securitization of power stations. Second, this regulation directly triggered 2013. The rushing of photovoltaic power plants at the end of the year has increased the proportion of clean energy-photovoltaic power generation in China's energy structure.

Power station rushing to rise, beware of "impulse punishment"

Beginning in August this year, it has not completely gone out of the "double-reverse" haze, the photovoltaic industry has been "centralized photovoltaic power plants nationwide divided into three categories (divided by the length of sunshine), respectively, 0.9 yuan, 0.95 yuan per kWh, Good news for the 1 yuan electricity price standard (on-grid price).

However, in addition to this, there is another provision in the “Notice on Playing the Role of Price Leverage to Promote the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry”, which is the “Partition Benchmarking On-grid Price Policy Applicable after September 1, 2013”. Filing (approval), as well as PV power plant projects that were filed (approved) before September 1 but were put into operation on or after January 1, 2014, the electricity price subsidy standard applies to distributed photovoltaic power generation projects other than the central financial investment subsidy. The implementation period of the benchmark on-grid price and electricity price subsidy standard is in principle 20 years."

In short, the on-grid tariffs enjoyed by PV power plants put into operation after January 1, 2014 have the expectation of a reduction in PV power plants put into operation before December 31, 2013 (photovoltaic power generation subsidies) "It is an inevitable trend", and the period of enjoying this policy is 20 years.

Under the command of the management, the photovoltaic companies with deep policies have been moving, and all parts of the country (mainly distributed in areas with better lighting conditions) have suddenly set off a wave of “roads” acquisition and power station construction, so that in 2013 In the fourth quarter, component suppliers involved in downstream power station investment, operation and maintenance, 50MW scale power plants to create 80 days of grid connection "miracle" (from investment to grid connection) and other news, often reported.

Rationally considering the surge of ground power stations, it has advantages and disadvantages for today's Chinese PV industry. First of all, the rush to protect the Chinese PV module manufacturers who have been repeatedly encountered in the European and American markets, providing them with an excellent opportunity to digest production capacity. Second, the construction and grid-connecting of a large number of photovoltaic power plants have created favorable conditions for optimizing China's energy structure and increasing the proportion of clean energy and renewable energy.

But at the same time, the disadvantages should also be valued by the industry. First, the construction of power stations with fast-moving whiplashes has caused the conversion rate, comprehensive power generation and other indicators to be ignored, and the quality of power stations is uneven. According to the "Securities Daily" reporter, in the second half of 2013, the sales of photovoltaic panels have regained popularity. Many PV power plants under construction have suffered from the disconnection of the battery panels, but they have chosen to shoddy. Second, blind pursuit of speed, easy to breed rent-seeking corruption. According to a survey by the Securities Daily reporter, in some areas, the EPC construction party has begun to sit on the ground, and even boasted that "not looking for me, I want to smoothly connect to the network." This is invisible, delaying the price of photovoltaics to the Internet, and eliminating the time of financial subsidies "canes" is extremely unfavorable to the healthy development of China's photovoltaics.

Distributed blue sea controversy forced business model innovation

In fact, after the release of management from the management will vigorously develop the signal of distributed photovoltaics, many companies and investors have taken the lead in order to share this blue ocean. However, after nearly a year of practice, the result was disappointing, so that some people had prejudged its "death penalty" on the grounds that "distribution is not suitable for China."

It is based on this position that when the goal of “2014 China's photovoltaic power generation construction regulation is set to 12GW, of which distributed GW 8GW” was proposed, the industry will complain. People worry that limited finance will neglect the help of ground power stations because of the excessive tendency to distribute.

Why does the management know the existence of these resistances and develop distributed PVs “indiscriminately”?

The reason is very simple. First, China's power supply is lacking in the east and the west is in a strong position. The eastern coastal areas are not so good, and the lighting conditions are not good enough to create a large number of conditions for the construction of large-scale ground power stations (sufficient sunshine and cheap). land). Second, under the premise of long construction period and large investment in the power grid, large-scale construction of photovoltaic power stations in the western region will certainly face the bottleneck of power grid construction lag, and the phenomenon of “sun-bathing” and “abandonment of light” from power stations will also occur. . At the same time, the West-East Power Transmission will cause serious power loss (the loss of West-East Power Transmission can reach 30%), and it is particularly unfavorable for the high cost of electricity. It still needs to rely on financial subsidies for photovoltaic power generation. More critically, in the light of European and American experience, distributed photovoltaic power generation is currently a lower cost, higher efficiency application of solar energy than ground power plants, and as an emerging field, it can provide broader innovation for photovoltaic technology breakthroughs. space. After all, "fair price online" is the goal that PV is striving for.

It should be said that for the above reasons, it is enough to support the management's determination to develop distributed photovoltaics. Then, why is distributed PV in the European and American markets so smooth in China?

In the final analysis, the Chinese market has not yet established a "business model" suitable for the development of distributed photovoltaics. Of course, there have been people in the industry who have "degraded" and the lack of "contractual spirit" is the biggest obstacle to the development of distributed photovoltaics in China.

The reason for this conclusion is that the cost of distributed photovoltaic power generation systems is high (investment is large, and returns are slow), and the owners tend to be less interested. In order to reverse the unfavorable situation, some PV companies have tried to adopt the "Energy Contract Management Agreement" to advance the construction costs, and then to collect the electricity charges and gradually reduce the cost.

However, a paper agreement can not effectively restrain the owner's breach of contract. When the construction is completed, the owner does not recognize the account, and even the situation of the distributed photovoltaic system is high. "The life cycle of distributed photovoltaic power generation is 20 to 25 years. If the calculation is based on the 20-year payback period, the risk is almost impossible for PV companies to bear. There are too many variables in 20 years." An industry person once told reporters. Expressed in this way.

As a matter of taste, the general attitude of such owners to distributed photovoltaic power generation is “dispensable”, and there is another category of “large electricity users”. Unfortunately, they can also make full use of “peak and valley electricity prices”. "The system, by arranging production time and other means, effectively staggering the valley and saving electricity costs. As a result, photovoltaic power is extremely attractive to them. At the same time, most industrial and commercial workers are not accustomed to "paying" for the future.

Even so, it seems that the management has set a target of “12GW for China's photovoltaic power generation construction regulation in 2014. Among them, 8GW of distributed photovoltaics”, compared with the depletion of ground power resources and the huge investment in power grid construction, It is by no means unrealistic. In the eyes of many people of insight, management is trying to use this policy to force the market to innovate business models and create a market environment suitable for distributed growth.

In any case, in 2014, China's PV industry will also face the paralysis of distribution.

Looking forward to building photovoltaic integration, relevant standards are being developed

In 2013, there was another photovoltaic event that had to be mentioned and it was also very warning. That was the collapse of Wuxi Suntech.

This once-recognized Chinese PV boss in the industry, in just a few months, has fallen from the world's largest photovoltaic product manufacturing company to being forced to declare bankruptcy and reorganization, which has made everyone stunned.

On the surface, the debt crisis, the break of the capital chain, the lack of incentive mechanisms, and the serious internal friction are the direct "fire" that ultimately caused this disaster. As an old employee who worked for Suntech said, "If there are not a few wrong strategic judgments and investments, perhaps the Suntech capital chain will not break, and perhaps Suntech will not go to the point of bankruptcy reorganization."

However, the root cause of Shangde’s fall is still due to the long-term exposure to the European and American markets. So when the "double opposition" hit, Suntech has no power.

Fortunately, after several twists and turns, the newly-launched photovoltaic giant, Shunfeng Optoelectronics, has completed the “takeover” of Wuxi Suntech not long ago, and the Suntech brand will continue, and the Suntech team will continue to contribute to China PV. More importantly, the "Shangde bankruptcy reorganization incident" is almost the epitome of China's photovoltaic situation, it will become our forever alarm.

Some vomiting, the reporter wants to elaborate, is nothing more than quelling the "double anti-", 掀 photovoltaic rushing tide has not fundamentally changed the situation of China's photovoltaic "is already a cliff of Baizhang ice", we expect it to really "still squid pretty".

In 2013, the embarrassment experienced by distributed photovoltaic power generation is one of the best portrayals of China's photovoltaics facing “the cliffs of Baizhang ice”.

In 2013, two articles titled "European "Double Counter" Conspiracy: The Dispute of Solar Cell Technology Routes, "European "Double Counter" Conspiracy and Recovering the Bottom: Ming Xiu Crystal Silicon Channel Dark Film Chen Cang" was quite popular Industry concern. Of course, there are "applause" and "beep".

Some people think that the article is alarmist and describes the "film" advantage, but inadvertently devalues ​​the value of "crystalline silicon" (two different solar cell technology routes). At the same time, some people believe that Europe and the United States want to use the emerging technology route to continue to suppress the "ambition" of China's photovoltaics.

The reality is that, as many reporters have verified, Germany is indeed trying to win enough market space for the film by pushing up the price of monocrystalline silicon and polycrystalline silicon solar cells. Through the "double opposition", the EU finally reached a "price commitment" with China, which precisely achieved this goal.

What is even more sinister is that he participated in the development of the German solar energy national development strategy. Dr. Chen Wei, who was the director of the nanodevice research office of the Helmholtz Berlin Materials and Energy Research Center, told reporters, "In Germany, currently The total number of people in the research and development and production of polycrystalline silicon and monocrystalline silicon solar cells is more than 200. More human and material resources tend to be in the field of thin film solar cells (currently including solar cells such as amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride, and copper indium gallium selenide). Preparation technology)".

Compared with Germany, this ratio is completely reversed in China. Affected by the market, 95% of Chinese PV companies are committed to crystalline silicon cells.

In fact, the formation of this situation can not blame anyone. Enterprises are profit-seeking. Since China's PV companies have continuously scaled up their scale and production capacity, they have produced crystalline silicon cells that are more expensive and cheaper than Europe and the United States. With 10 years of development, they have surpassed others' 70-year-old hard work. It is necessary to bear the risks of developing thin film technology. The first-line builders of several photovoltaic power plants have admitted to the reporter that the thin-film power plants they built before have not only frequent accidents (electric breakdown, etc.), but also occupy a larger area than crystalline silicon power plants.
But from a holistic perspective, the industry should be soberly aware that this advantage of relying on capacity to pull low cost is difficult to sustain and can easily be surpassed. On this basis, Europeans have realized that after 70 years of hard work, crystalline silicon technology has been difficult to break through, and the film is in front of us, the only shortcut that can further improve solar energy utilization.

Thinking again and again, in the opinion of reporters, in the specific field of photovoltaic cells (crystal silicon, film routes are completely different, enterprises can not be converted), it is not realistic for enterprises to undertake innovative missions. Then, should the management focus on increasing investment in the scientific and financial level, and hope that there will be breakthroughs in universities and research institutes?

At the same time, it is particularly important to open up a battlefield for thin film technology at the market level. For example, BIPV (Building Photovoltaic Integration) is an excellent choice.

According to the latest information, relevant departments have initiated the development of building photovoltaic integration standards, trying to pave the way for the use of solar energy for buildings. If all goes well, in the future, perhaps in 2014, BIPV will not only effectively circumvent the distribution, but also provide a broader market for the Chinese PV industry, and it will become a film for the film (the film has advantages in the curtain wall), and A stage in which crystalline silicon is combined.

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