
As of December 26, the domestic average price of methanol in China reached 2,567 yuan per ton, marking the lowest level of the year. This significant decline has raised concerns among industry players, as the price has been on a downward trend since October, dropping by 7.48% over the past few months.
Currently, methanol prices vary across different regions. In Shandong, the price range is between 2,400 and 2,550 yuan per ton, while in Hebei, it has fallen to 2,400–2,450 yuan per ton. Shanxi has seen prices drop further to 2,350–2,470 yuan per ton, and in East China, port prices have slipped to 2,690–2,790 yuan per ton. These regional differences highlight the uneven impact of the price slump.
The decline in methanol prices coincides with a drop in coal prices, which are a key input for production. The Bohai Rim thermal coal index now stands at 634 yuan per ton, down from 807.5 yuan per ton at the start of the year. This reduction in raw material costs hasn’t been enough to offset the weak demand from downstream sectors.
The formaldehyde industry, a major consumer of methanol, has been hit hard by real estate regulations, leading to lower activity levels. Meanwhile, the dimethyl ether (DME) industry is operating at an average rate of just 38.47%. In Hebei, some manufacturers have already reached their cost lines, forcing them to cut back or temporarily halt operations. Similarly, the acetic acid market has dropped by 11.35% since October, with current prices averaging 2,890 yuan per ton.
Wang Min, a business analyst, noted that winter typically marks a slow season for methanol, and with supply expected to increase further, the outlook remains challenging. From January to November 2023, China’s methanol output totaled 23.753 million tons, up 30.8% compared to the same period last year. In early 2024, two major projects—Shaanxi Lutianhua’s 600,000-ton facility and Jinchengtai’s 600,000-ton plant—are set to come online, potentially increasing supply even more.
However, long-term growth prospects remain positive. The development of alcohol-based fuels and the conversion of methanol into olefins are expected to provide a much-needed boost to the industry, helping it recover from the current downturn.
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