The Ministry of Ecology and Environment recently issued a consultation draft for the “Action Plan for the Comprehensive Management of Air Pollution in the Autumn and Winter of 2018-2019 in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the Surrounding Areas†(hereinafter referred to as the “Programâ€).
The "Proposal" requires that some of the peak-peak production will be implemented in the steel, coking and foundry industries, and the building materials industry will implement comprehensive peak-peak production. The production capacity of key cities in the heating season is limited to 50%; the proportion of production in other cities is not less than 30%. The provincial government will formulate implementation plans and implement overall rectification of scattered and polluting enterprises. If the enterprise fails to meet the requirements of the governance standards, the power company will not supply power, and the illegal power supply will be openly accountable.
The industry believes that the government continues to maintain a high pressure on environmental protection, and the industry has different effects. This year's plan is more enforced than last year, and the production limit may be extended. The impact of winter peaks on steel mill production has increased compared with last year. The coke industry boom is expected to increase with the strictening of environmental protection requirements, and the policy expectation of the catalytic role of the aluminum industry chain price is worthy of attention.
This year's environmental protection and production policy is more stringent
Compared with last year's policy, this year's environmental protection and production policy has become more differentiated and more stringent.
This year's air quality improvement target requires that the average concentration of fine particulate matter (pm2.5) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas will decrease by about 5% from October 1, 2018 to March 31, 2019, and the number of severe and above-mentioned pollution days will decrease by 5 %about. Last year's production limit target was that the city of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution transmission channel pm2.5 decreased by more than 15% year-on-year, and the number of heavy pollution days decreased by more than 15%.
According to the "Proposal", the scope of implementation of the heating season in 2018-2019 is still 2+26 cities, which is basically the same as last year. Before the end of September 2018, the cities will complete the development of the peak production plan. The benchmark production capacity of the company's peak production will be based on the capacity in September 2018. In terms of the ratio of production restrictions, last year, key cities such as Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan and Anyang were limited to 50% of the heating season, and Tianjin and Xingtai were added to the key cities. However, unlike last year, the ratio of production restrictions in other cities is not less than 30%.
In terms of optimizing the production capacity structure, the “Proposal†requires that the production capacity of the industries such as the increase, coking, and building materials be eliminated and reduced. The enterprises that have been included in the production capacity will be withdrawn from the supporting sintering, coke oven, blast furnace and other equipment. In 2018, Hebei Province's production capacity was reduced by more than 10 million tons, Shanxi Province was reduced by 2.25 million tons, Shandong Province was reduced by 3.55 million tons, and Henan Province was reduced by more than 1.5 million tons. The elimination of 48 sets of 2.94 million kilowatts of coal-fired units was completed in the area.
The "Proposal" first proposed this year that enterprises with organized emissions, unorganized emissions and bulk materials and product transportation to achieve ultra-low emission requirements, can not be wrong peaks, limited production of 50% during the orange and above heavy pollution weather warning period, related The provincial departments report to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for the record; only some of the production processes and links to meet the ultra-low emission requirements, still included in the peak production implementation plan, according to the emission performance level to implement differentiated peaks.
Limited production and emission reduction have different impacts on related industries
This year's "Program" has some new changes in terms of industry-specific production and emission reductions compared to last year. In this regard, Xu Xiangchun, director of our network information, told the Shanghai Securities Journal that overall, the impact of this year's peak peak on the production of steel mills has increased compared with last year. The short-term impact is the implementation time or extension of the peak production in autumn and winter. Last year was from November 15 to March 15, and this year may be from the beginning of October to the end of March next year.
The long-term impact is to continue to reduce production capacity, while proposing to reduce coking capacity, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas to implement a policy of steel fixed focus. In addition, increasing the proportion of railway transportation will also have a major impact on the transportation of materials and products. Xu Xiangchun said.
Caitong Securities Research Institute believes that in the 2018-2019 heating season, the production will continue to be implemented, the self-supplied power plant related expenses will be expected to strengthen, the alumina/prebaked anode price will push up the aluminum price, and the consumption of the off-season inventory will continue to decline. Under the catalysis, the fluctuation of aluminum price is a high probability event, and the specific rhythm and intensity will depend on the implementation of the policy.
According to their calculations, the affected electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 9.6 million tons. If it is strictly implemented, the production of electrolytic aluminum will be reduced by 960,000 tons during the heating season; the affected alumina production capacity will total nearly 30 million tons, such as strict Execution, during the heating season will reduce the production of nearly 3 million tons of alumina (corresponding to the production of 1.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum), the alumina production limit is slightly larger than electrolytic aluminum.
According to industry sources, the "Proposal" proposes that by the end of October 2018, 2+26 cities will complete 3.92 million replacement of loose coal. Before the end of December 2018, coal-fired boilers of less than 35 tons per hour were basically eliminated in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Henan. Clean heating and coal to gas are worthy of attention. (æŽè‹‘)
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