China's photovoltaic industry's counter-growth installed capacity is the world's first in the year

Abstract In the global economic downturn, China's PV industry has grown against the trend. In the first three quarters of this year, the installed capacity increased by 161%. Industry insiders expect that due to the impact of new PV installations in the fourth quarter, China's PV industry may experience leap-forward growth, the cumulative total will be...
In the global economic downturn, China's PV industry has grown against the trend. In the first three quarters of this year, the installed capacity increased by 161%. The industry expects that due to the impact of new PV installations in the fourth quarter, China's PV industry may experience a leap-forward growth, with a cumulative total of 43 million kilowatts, surpassing Germany to become the world's largest PV application.

What is more noteworthy is that renewable energy will launch a cost war on fossil energy on a global scale. According to the plan, in 2015, it is necessary to realize the low-cost Internet access for photovoltaic power generation users, and then expand to the power generation side by 2025, and finally enter the era of parity, and move toward a variety of applications to form a new way of solar energy development of “photovoltaic+”.

In the fourth quarter, the jump growth will be the first in the world.
With the strengthening of policy support and the continuous launch of the domestic market, China's PV industry has gradually stepped out of the trough, and in 2015 it has accelerated its recovery. The "Economic Information Daily" reporter learned from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association that the total output value of China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry exceeded 200 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, and the export value of major photovoltaic products such as silicon wafers, battery chips and modules reached 10 billion US dollars. Among them, polysilicon production was about 105,000 tons, up 20% year-on-year; wafer production was about 6.8 billion pieces, and battery production was about 28GW, both of which increased by more than 10% year-on-year; module production was about 31GW, up 26.4% year-on-year. The profitability of PV companies has improved significantly. The gross profit margin of the top 10 component companies has exceeded 15%, and most companies have turned losses into profits.

The growth of photovoltaic power generation is even more rapid. According to the latest data from the National Energy Administration, as of the end of September 2015, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the country reached 37.95 million kilowatts, including 31.7 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power plants and 6.25 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaics. From January to September, the installed capacity of new photovoltaic power generation in the country was 9.9 million kilowatts, an increase of 161% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity of new photovoltaic power plants is 8.32 million kilowatts, and the newly added distributed photovoltaic installed capacity is 1.58 million kilowatts.

"At present, the internal rate of return of PV power plant development in the entire industry chain can reach 8-10%, much higher than the manufacturing industry; in addition, investment in photovoltaic power plants can also drive the company's own digestion of battery components and other production capacity. 2014 national component manufacturers Among the top 20, almost all of them are involved in the development of downstream power stations.” Gao Jifan, chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that in the first eight months of 2015, PV-related industry investment was 68.47 billion yuan, up 39.4% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points lower than January-July. But still increased by 33.4 percentage points over the same period last year.

It is understood that the National Energy Administration's 2015 PV construction scale is 17.8GW, plus the front runner plan indicators and the Energy Bureau's notice on the scale of 2015 PV power plant construction in some areas. The total installed capacity is expected to be above 20GW this year.

In Gao Jifan's view, China's PV industry may experience a leap in growth in the fourth quarter due to the impact of new PV installations by the Energy Bureau. It is expected that the price of PV modules may rise slightly in the fourth quarter, and the profit rate of manufacturing enterprises may increase slightly. The backbone enterprises will further increase their market share by virtue of the technology scale brand advantage. The living space of some small enterprises will be further squeezed, and the merger and reorganization of enterprises will accelerate. The concentration of industry is constantly improving.

Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, estimates that this year's new PV installed capacity will be about 15 million kilowatts, and the cumulative total will reach 43 million kilowatts, surpassing Germany to become the world's largest PV application country. In the next 2020, it will probably exceed 100 million kilowatts, and in 2030, it will exceed 400 million kilowatts, marking the era of large-scale application in China.

Realize user side parity online in the next 5 years
What is more noteworthy is that renewable energy will launch a cost war on fossil energy on a global scale. A recent comprehensive analysis by RMI shows that in some parts of the United States, the cost of utility-scale large-scale photovoltaics is already cheaper than that of coal-fired and gas-fired thermal power plants. In China, according to Trina Solar statistics, in the eight years from 2007 to 2015, the market price of PV modules dropped from 36 yuan per watt to 3.5 yuan to 3.8 yuan, and the price of grid-connected photovoltaic systems dropped from 60 yuan per watt to The price of inverters dropped from 4 yuan per watt to 0.3 yuan per watt, from 7 yuan to 8 yuan per watt.

However, the current economy is still the main factor restricting the development of photovoltaic power generation. Technological progress and industrial upgrading are the key issues that constrain development. At the same time, the management system to adapt to the large-scale development of photovoltaic power generation needs to be improved, and the supporting industrial service system that adapts to the large-scale development of photovoltaic power has not yet been established.

"The next five years will be an important period for China to promote economic transformation, energy transformation, system innovation, and technology opening, and will provide a broader space for the development of the photovoltaic industry." Director of the New Energy Division of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration Xiufen revealed that the scale of photovoltaic power generation in 2020 has been raised by 50% to 150 million kilowatts from the previous 100 million kilowatts. The primary task of the 13th Five-Year Plan is to promote cost reduction through large-scale development and realize photovoltaic power generation users as soon as possible. Affordable internet access. The cost of photovoltaic power station construction and power generation should be reduced by more than 20% on the basis of 2015. The construction cost in the central and eastern regions is below 7 yuan per watt, and the construction cost in the western region is below 6 yuan per watt.

"Even if the price of firepower does not rise in the next five years, as the cost of components and system components declines, there is no suspense to achieve this goal. By 2025, the parity of the power generation side can be achieved. If in 2025, the price of firepower on-grid rises to 0.55 yuan / kWh, with the cost of components and system components decreased, the investment cost of photovoltaic power plants will be reduced by 25%-30%, and the cost of 10 MW large-scale photovoltaic power generation is about 0.65-0.60 yuan / kWh." President of Artes Solar Power Group Xiao Xiaozhen judged.

In his view, the three key factors to achieve this goal are photovoltaic “intelligence”, namely “wisdom” + “manufacturing”, first, technology and product innovation (a key factor in reducing product costs); second, upgrading automation Intelligent interconnection of equipment (reducing manufacturing costs and key factors to improve quality); Third, improving the digital management of operational information (a key factor in reducing indirect manufacturing costs).

Liang Zhipeng, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, revealed that the photovoltaic industry should improve conversion efficiency and reduce costs in the future. At the same time, it must achieve industrial upgrading, have strong independent research and development capabilities, localized key equipment, and full industrial chain technical capabilities. And industry supporting system. In addition, the state will guide the development of advanced technology products to expand the market and increase the scale of the pilot base.

It is understood that the first approved project of the “Top Runner” program has been spent, and many provinces and cities are planning to declare it. The plan is implemented for at least three consecutive years. "This year is the start of a 1 million kilowatts of Datong, and several more will be launched later. By next year, I hope that it will be a leading base of more than 3 million kilowatts, even bigger." Liang Zhipeng said.

A new way to form "photovoltaic +" solar energy green energy
"In the next 5 to 10 years, we must form a large enterprise-led, small-enterprise cooperation, solar energy to cheap electricity, to thousands of households, and all things combined to form a new way of solar green energy." Gao Jifan proposed "photovoltaic + "the concept of.

It is understood that current downstream developers are generally skeptical about the long-term survival of small component companies and fulfilling their warranty on components in procurement, and instead favor large brands with brands. In order to meet the order requirements in 2014, most large companies have increased the effective capacity of existing equipment through technological transformation, or increased the number of shipments by looking for third-party OEMs. With the expansion of the company's own production capacity, this third-party OEM method will be difficult to continue to exist on a large scale. Some SMEs will not be optimistic about market competitiveness due to lack of orders and backward technology.

In his view, large enterprises have relatively large scale, investment in research and development funds, and have good talent brands, which occupy a dominant position in the manufacturing industry, while small enterprises can do their own professional work in special fields and support large enterprises. Form the overall pattern of China's so-called industry. In the future, with lower and lower costs, solar energy applications will move from ground power stations, large-scale distributed, residential rooftops to a variety of new applications. SMEs can find their own positioning on the application side, whether it is new technology and business cooperation. The model, combined with the Internet and even consumer goods, will be a huge space.

In fact, PV applications have now shown diversified integration trends, such as photovoltaic and poverty alleviation, agriculture, environment, climate and so on. For a long time, China's photovoltaic power generation has presented the situation of “power generation in the west and electricity use in the east”, and the problem of power consumption is becoming more and more serious. In the eastern region, the construction of traditional ground power stations is faced with the problem of insufficient land and insufficient construction land. However, China has 135 million hectares of agricultural land and more than 2 million hectares of greenhouses, most of which are located in the central and eastern regions. In this case, the cross-border marriage between photovoltaics and agriculture came into being. In the past one or two years, the scale of photovoltaic agricultural greenhouses has expanded rapidly. Photovoltaic agricultural projects have accounted for about 30% of the total number of projects registered in the first half of 2015, and have become one of the main forms of photovoltaic applications.

According to the planning idea, the “13th Five-Year Plan” will focus on the development of large-scale industrial parks, economic development zones, public facilities, residential buildings and other rooftop distributed photovoltaic power generation systems, making full use of qualified agricultural facilities and idle. Expand the scale of use of the site, gradually promote the photovoltaic building integration project, explore the photovoltaic power generation system of the mobile platform, and the emerging commercial utilization mode of mobile photovoltaic power supply base stations.

“With the global photovoltaic industry increasingly focusing on the ecosystem, in the strong recovery of the economy, the photovoltaic industry represents China's position in the global industry, and its importance will become higher and higher in the future.” Jingke Energy Global News spokesperson Qian Jing expects that the future photovoltaic energy Internet is full of infinite possibilities and huge imagination. The intelligent use of photovoltaics will become an important indicator of smart power and smart cities.

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