China accepts EU PV battle

The EU has made a move and China has taken over. Within 24 hours after the EU announced its decision to impose a temporary anti-dumping duty on Chinese PV products, the Chinese government and enterprises responded quickly. At the enterprise level, Yingli and other PV giants quickly gathered in Beijing to discuss the next strategy; at the official level, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said yesterday that it has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigation procedures for EU wines, and this may be only the Chinese counter-measure a card. China is the EU's second largest trading partner. The EU is China's largest trading partner and the largest source of imports. The trade dispute between the two economies is not what the two sides hope. How to resolve disputes through consultation is the most urgent task.


Internal: Emergency planning of various negotiating chips

One day: the emergency gathering of photovoltaic giants started a "counterattack "

The EU's willingness to do so on the PV double-reverse will cause a more powerful industry to resist the tsunami. A few days ago, Yingli and other domestic PV giants and industry associations, in the call of the Ministry of Commerce, urgently gathered in Beijing to discuss countermeasures against the EU's double opposition.

The relevant person in charge of Yingli told the reporter that in this trade war, Chinese PV companies are passive. "But we do not want to use violence to create violence, which will cause greater damage to Sino-European trade. We still hope to solve this matter by negotiation." .

In addition to the active appeal, PV companies are actively planning to move to other emerging markets in order to avoid heavy taxes. According to some analysis reports, solar energy facilities in the photovoltaic market in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore and the Philippines will grow at a rate of 50% per year in the next few years, and these places are becoming investment hotspots for PV giants.

Yingli introduced that it has found a new factory in Southeast Asia where resources are good and the government is willing to cooperate. At the same time, Trina Solar, Suntech, Artes and other photovoltaic giants have the same plan.

In addition to expanding the market, PV companies also hope to strengthen themselves through strong alliances. In March of this year, Yingli and GCL-Poly signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement. The two parties will take advantage of their respective advantages in the upstream and downstream of the PV industry chain, and carry out comprehensive cooperation in the fields of industrial chain superiority division, wafer production capacity support and power station cooperation and development. After more than two months, Yingli signed a strategic cooperation agreement with DuPont, a Fortune 500 company, in the United States. Yingli said that this agreement will ensure that it has high-quality photovoltaic materials (market area) supply and optimize Yingli PV products. Converting efficiency and durability while helping to win the US market.

In addition, there are also PV companies. The company is still improving its integration of upstream resource control and downstream channel integration, innovating business models and marketing models, looking for new profit growth points, and continuing to consolidate and expand market share.

According to Meng Xianzhao, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, if China wants to get rid of the restrictions of overseas markets, it must not only diversify its market layout, but also the most important point is to be stronger in technology. "We must first do our own thing well, bring up technological innovation, and master the core technology, so that we can grasp the initiative." Meng Xianyu said.

Two months: China has made preparations for commitment price negotiations

After the European Commission announced the preliminary ruling on anti-dumping of PV products in China, China has acted at various levels from the national ministries to the photovoltaic companies. "At present, the Chinese industry is ready to negotiate with the European Commission on price commitments. It is hoped that the EU and the Chinese industry will start negotiations as soon as possible and reach an agreement on price commitments as soon as possible to avoid the expansion and upgrading of trade frictions." The press conference responded to the current concerns of the public. Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said at the press conference: "We have three attitudes that have not changed for the decision of the European Commission." Shen Danyang said: First, resolutely oppose The attitude of abusing trade remedy measures has not changed, because such taxation measures are unfair and are an abuse of trade remedy measures. Second, the position of insisting on resolving trade disputes through negotiations and consultations has not changed. Third, the determination to resolutely safeguard national interests, industrial interests, and corporate interests has not changed. "This is the responsibility of the Chinese government, and it should be!"

Shen Danyang said: "The Chinese side has also noticed that the European side has shown some flexibility. We hope that the EU will further show its sincerity and further demonstrate flexibility. In the next two months, we will sit down with the Chinese industry and talk about it through consultation. Find a reasonable, win-win solution that both sides can accept."

Liu Danyang, deputy director of the Bureau of Import and Export Fair Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the temporary anti-dumping tax rate decided by the European Commission has dropped significantly from the previously proposed 47.6% to the current 11.8%. It provides certain conditions for our next consultation and dialogue.

Further negotiations by Shen Danyang refer to commitment price negotiations.

The chief representative of the industry's foreign negotiations, Zhang Jingjing, president of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, told the Beijing Business Daily that the EU had previously expressed a price-commitment approach to find a mutually acceptable solution. Not long ago, the China Chamber of Commerce for Electromechanical Industry sent a working group and the European Commission to conduct the first round of negotiations, but unfortunately the EU did not accept our plan, and did not listen to our opinions on the issues we raised and the explanations we made. A promised price negotiation ended without results.

The EU's "compromise" is to get a higher bargaining chip. Zhang Yujing said that the Chamber of Commerce and Industry will communicate with important enterprises in the photovoltaic industry and hope to find a feasible solution through further dialogue and consultation. "We hope that the EU will further show its sincerity, show flexibility and fully consider the production and export situation of China's PV industry. The two sides will find a fair and reasonable and acceptable price plan through consultation and dialogue. This is our purpose."

"To this end, the Electromechanical Chamber of Commerce has made full preparations and exchanged opinions with the company. We are ready to conduct such negotiations and consultations," Zhang said.

The impact of the 11.8% temporary anti-dumping tax rate that has been implemented since today on domestic related companies. Liu Danyang admits that even if the tax rate is reduced, there will be some harm to export enterprises. Everyone knows that the photovoltaic industry is fiercely competitive and the profit margin is relatively low. The anti-dumping duty of 11.8% may hurt some companies. There is a certain amount of damage to the whole, but the magnitude of the damage is being calculated. There is still no accurate data. I am currently learning about it.

20 years: subsidies help companies "winter"

After the US and European markets have been blocked, the domestic market is definitely a potential stock for PV companies. In the same day, the industry rumors, "Several opinions on the work of grid-connected services for distributed photovoltaic power generation" have been passed recently. This opinion for the first time clarifies that the distributed PV subsidy period is 20 years. For this clear figure, experts believe that this will greatly boost the confidence of domestic distributed PV development.

"In 20 years, this is equivalent to life-long subsidies." It is understood that the average operating time of distributed photovoltaic power plants is 25-30 years, especially the investment cost recovery period of the project is up to 20 years. “Before, people were worried that the timing of PV subsidy policy may be uncertain and may change. This time it was confirmed, it will obviously stimulate the confidence of more investors.” An industry expert who has long been concerned about the development of photovoltaic industry pointed out .

It is also worth noting that the opinion draft on the “Notice on Improving the Price of Photovoltaic Power Generation Policies” issued recently pointed out that the subsidy for distributed power generation self-use electricity price is 0.35 yuan/kWh, and this subsidy price is expected to increase to 0.45 yuan/ Kilowatt hours.

"Under the influence of these two favorable policies, domestic distributed PV will show a spurt growth. Distributed PV is like a vanguard. Next, large-scale PV power plants may also be favored, and its development will also accelerate." The above experts said.

However, some insiders have warned that it is necessary to guard against the excess of the downstream PV industry and cause the phenomenon of “abandonment of light”. "And this requires a nationwide scientific planning layout, and upstream equipment companies are not doing this well, they are now in an embarrassing situation." Wang Xiaokun, a new energy analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said.

It is understood that the photovoltaic industry is an emerging industry. At the beginning, it was regarded by the local government as a sweet spot and a new profit growth point. In addition, they controlled the approval power, and the company went crazy and achieved a billionaire. It also increased the performance of the local government.

In recent years, the economic crisis has hit and the overseas market has tightened. The overcapacity of domestic enterprises has exceeded 50%. Under this situation, the government introduced policies intensively last year to help the photovoltaic industry return to China. The installed capacity of PV “12th Five-Year Plan” has been continuously improved. At the beginning of this year, the original installed PV capacity was adjusted from 21GW to 35GW. It is predicted that the future will be May be raised to 40GW. It is worth noting that in 2012, China's PV installed capacity was only about 4.5GW. It can be seen that the scale of domestic PV power generation will expand nearly 10 times in the next three years.

However, some experts said that the domestic PV market will also encounter multiple factors such as the power grid, and the PV market cannot form a scale in the short term.

External: Accurately combat taxation support countries

The first shot: kicking off the counter from the wine

On the second day after the European Commission announced the preliminary anti-dumping results against China, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the launch of anti-dumping and countervailing investigation procedures for EU wines. The outside world speculated that the Chinese "retaliation" action began.

In response, Liu Danyang, deputy director of the Bureau of Import and Export Fair Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, responded that the wine case was based on the domestic wine industry application and was also a normal trade survey initiated in accordance with relevant Chinese laws and procedures. "We know this very well. In the course of the investigation, the Chinese investigation authorities will conduct fair and impartial and transparent investigations and investigations according to the law, and will also investigate according to the facts."

Liu Danyang introduced that from 2009 to 2012, we imported wine from the EU from 64,000 liters to 257,000 liters, with an average annual growth rate of 59.83%. The proportion of China's total import volume increased from 37.15% in 2009 to 65.16% in 2012. In 2012, the total import volume from the EU was 257,000 kiloliters, and the amount was 1.04 billion US dollars.

The data shows that the current imported wine has already occupied 40% of the domestic market share, of which the proportion of wines from the EU in the total amount of imported wine is 60%. According to customs statistics, China imported 430 million liters of wine in 2012, an increase of 8.9% over the previous year; value of 2.57 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.1%; the average import price was 6% per liter, up 8.5%. According to Wang Zuming, secretary general of the wine association of the China Wine Association, the EU is the world's largest wine region, producing about 16 million tons of wine a year, accounting for 69% of the global total. And the China Wine Association also revealed that the EU provides a large amount of subsidies for the wine industry, these subsidies make Chinese wines face a very disadvantageous position in the competition with the EU imported wine.

The EU wine exports to China are mainly France, Spain, Italy, and Germany. In 2012, the export volume of China's four member countries to China's wines was 140,100 kiloliters, 71,400 kiloliters, 31,200 kiloliters, and 0.38 million kiloliters. The total exports of the four countries accounted for 96.33% of the EU's total exports to China. Tu Xinquan, deputy dean of the WTO Research Institute of the University of International Business and Economics, told the Beijing Business Daily that in fact, the wine double-reverse is actually targeted. The main exporting countries, France and Italy, voted for the European Commission’s tax on photovoltaic products in China. Support tickets. "Although the amount is not large, the counter-effect is not large, but to a certain extent, it will exert certain pressure on the relevant countries. It is also necessary to properly counter the EU through legal means in accordance with WTO rules."

In recent years, imported wines have flooded into the Chinese market, and domestically produced wines have been squeezed. Zhangyu’s “crops” has been used as a trigger. Since last year, the performance of domestic wine companies such as Changyu, Great Wall and Dynasty has been red. The development of fatigue has begun to become more apparent. Among them, Changyu's net profit in 2012 was 1.695 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, and the performance of Dynasty wine industry also turned from profit to loss. According to industry analysis, the biggest trouble for domestic wines is that they are constantly being hit by imported wines.

In August 2012, the China Wine Association submitted an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation to EU wines from the Ministry of Commerce. After nearly a year, the proposal was finally implemented, but whether it can rely on this policy to reverse the above-mentioned domestic and foreign wine companies. The deficit between the two is still unknown.

Back to the carbine: China can set up a counter-list to deter the EU

In fact, although China has always maintained restraint in this trade friction, this does not mean that China will endure it again and again.

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce revealed yesterday that in the call of Premier Li Keqiang and European Commission President Barroso on June 3, Prime Minister Li Keqiang told Franko Barroso that if the EU insists on taking sanctions, China must Counterattack.

Zhang Li, deputy director and researcher of the Foreign Trade Strategy Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce, told the Beijing Business Daily: "If China does not learn the same trade sanctions, only the establishment of a counter-measure will not allow those countries to easily launch counter-measures. This requires We speed up our research and form a complete set of countermeasures to avoid coming together."

Zhang Li suggested that it is correct and reasonable for China to conduct appropriate counter-measures, but counter-measures cannot be expanded and cannot exceed WTO rules. Zhang Li believes that in addition to wine, China can also publish some broad counter-attacks, which will have a deterrent effect on the EU. For example, the EU's exports to China, products that are not in line with China's economic security, and products that have a huge impact on the EU's economy can be included. But one principle that needs to be grasped is that it cannot be blindly countered, and it must be polite and at the same time not have a self-damaging effect on us.

Some insiders suggested countering the EU's new energy industry, equipment technology, precision instruments, machine tools, etc. Some experts also told the Beijing Business Daily that they can export more luxury goods, airplanes and cars to the EU. ) and so on. Some analysts pointed out that polysilicon may become a counter-brand of the Chinese side. It is understood that China is the largest exporter of polysilicon in the EU. In 2012, the domestic demand for polysilicon was about 145,000 tons. Among them, imported polysilicon was 82,800 tons, an increase of 28% compared with 64,600 tons in 2011, with a total value of more than 2.1 billion US dollars. Affected by the low-priced import dumping of polysilicon giants in Europe, the United States and South Korea, the domestic polysilicon production in 2012 was 63,000 tons, down 23.8% from the 84,000 tons in 2011. A polysilicon executive said: "At present, all the work of the Ministry of Commerce is ready, and the materials are ready."

"In fact, we do not advocate large-scale counter-measures. We and China are mutually important trade partners. It is very unfavorable for China to set off a trade war." Zhang Li further said that China and the EU trade confrontation will be against the world. The trade pattern and even the world economy have had a huge impact. The trade protectionism in Europe and the United States has a linkage effect. The US double-anti-China PV has triggered the EU's actions to a certain extent. The European and American practices will trigger the emulation of emerging markets, and may even lead to a "world war" in the economic field. "From this perspective, the EU's initiation of trade protectionism is particularly irresponsible. At present, the world economy is looking for a road to recovery. China is also facing economic transformation. The only way for the whole world to get out of the economic crisis is cooperation. Zhang Li said.

Reporter observation

Knife is fast, heart is sinking

After the United States, the EU also decided to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese PV products. The external market has changed from day to day, making China's PV industry, which relies heavily on external markets, in a difficult situation. For trade protection, we have to counter it, and the knife is fast; for PV's own problems, we have to reflect and sink.

Photovoltaic has been going all the way to the present, and in just a few years it has changed from industry to “terrible business”. The blind support and excessive support of the government have contributed. The government actively intervened in the micro-management of the market in the name of industry guidance. Through financial subsidies, preferential loans and land, the price signal was distorted, and the supply curve and cost structure of the enterprise were also distorted. This makes the company completely ignore the future risks in the expansion, just to grow bigger, just to slap the land, but neglect the internal cost and risk control. Once the market risk is released sharply, the company is dumbfounded, the government is also dumbfounded, the crazy piled up capacity eventually becomes the fish on the board of others, and the diced diced completely looks at the eyes of others.

Behind the photovoltaics, in fact, you can pull out a long list, steel (market zone), cement, electrolytic aluminum ... are facing the Chinese-style overcapacity caused by government investment. When most of the capacity of an industry is used for export, the outcome of trade protection is already doomed. How to avoid the problem of photovoltaic type, for the government, gradually reduce its investment attributes, let the company learn to swim in the market itself; for enterprises, it must face the domestic market and focus on domestic demand. Breaking through the system barriers requires the government to release the reform dividend.

If you eat a sip and grow a wise, you still have something to lose. If you eat one after another, if you don’t have a long time, you have to ask yourself.

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