China's emission reduction capacity is “locked in”

According to a survey report, China's future emission reduction capacity is “carbon-locked” by the current construction and production model, and may last for decades, which will severely limit emission reduction efforts and technology promotion.
This report is from the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (hereinafter referred to as the “CCICED”) “China Low Carbon Economy Development Path Research Group”. The three core Chinese and foreign experts of the research group are Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, Gordon Conway, chief scientist of the UK Department for International Development, and Bjorn Stigson, chairman of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. ).
Liu Shijin said that the meaning of “carbon lock” is that industrial activities and economic scale have a huge inertia. By building an infrastructure with a life span of 50 to 100 years, a country’s technology and institutional structure are jointly toward a fossil fuel-based system. Evolution.
The analysis shows that China is currently in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization, and a large amount of infrastructure and equipment are put into operation in the next 20 years. In the context of large-scale investment, if advanced technology, equipment and development concepts are not adopted, once completed, they will be locked in the path of high energy consumption, high pollution and high emissions throughout their life cycle.
Some experts here also worry that under the circumstances of the 4 trillion investment plan to stimulate economic growth, some projects with high energy consumption and high pollution emissions that have been revived for various reasons may further aggravate the “carbon lock” situation.
According to the report, the reasons for the formation of environmental problems in China are complicated, but among many factors, the energy utilization status that has been “carbon-locked” includes the rapid growth of total energy consumption, coal-based energy structure and low utilization efficiency. .
“Traditional construction and production models are extensive and inefficient, resulting in high-intensity pollutant emissions.” The report said that although China has achieved significant results in energy efficiency improvements over the past 20 years, the annual average energy savings rate has reached About 4%, but the comprehensive energy consumption is still only about 30%, about 10% lower than that of developed countries.
In terms of energy intensity, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP fell from 11.9 standard coal tons per 10,000 US dollars in 2005 to 10.48 standard coal tons per 10,000 US dollars, but it is still 5 to 7 times that of developed countries.
"So, we should start to develop a low-carbon economy as soon as possible, adopt advanced production technology and equipment, rational urbanization mode and economical consumption mode in development, and embark on the development path of low energy consumption, low pollution and low emissions." World Jin said.
The scenario analysis of the research team shows that if China does not change its economic development model, per capita carbon dioxide emissions will reach 8 tons by 2030, and oil dependence will exceed 80%. And if China takes a low-carbon development path, China can reduce its energy consumption by 20% in 2030 to 4.47 billion tons, and the per capita carbon dioxide emissions are 5.9 tons.

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