According to the information monitoring system of “China·Shuitou Stone Indexâ€, the stone boom index closed at 89.47 points in December, down 15.00 points from the previous month and down 14.36%. Compared with the same period of last year, it increased by 10.47 points, an increase of about 13.2%. In December, all indicators showed fluctuations in different ranges, and the economy continued to fall.
First, the prosperity index
Through the market survey of several major indicators such as output, sales volume, orders, inventory, labor and economic benefits, and the forecast of the next month's prosperity, the subjective judgment results are statistically calculated, and the stone boom index is closed in December. At 89.47 points, the chain fell by 15.00 points, down about 14.36%. Compared with the same period of last year, it increased by 10.47 points, an increase of about 13.2%, and the growth rate narrowed. The prosperity index continued to fluctuate in December, and the index fell below 100 points this month.
According to the survey results, about 23.3% of the sample companies in this month think that the indicators have increased compared with the previous period, and about 53.4% ​​think that the indicators are the same as the previous period. More than half of the companies also believe that the indicators are the same as last month. 23.3% believe that the indicators are lower than the previous period. Compared with the previous month's indicator, this month's opinion is that the indicators are increasing and the momentum is flat, and the proportion of reduction is expected to continue to increase.
Judging from the comparison of various indicators with the November data, the sample companies in this month considered that the largest proportion of growth in the previous period was enterprise inventory, sales volume and output, accounting for 32.6%, 27.9%, and 25.6%, respectively. This month, the sample companies considered that the indicators with the largest proportion of the previous period were labor consumption, enterprise inventory and order contracts, accounting for 65.1%, 58.1%, and 53.5%, respectively. The indicator that the largest proportion of the previous period was reduced was the order contract, accounting for 27.9%. In terms of various indicators, compared with the November prosperity index, this month, except for the proportion of inventory and orders increased slightly compared with the previous month, the proportion of other indicators increased slightly. This month, in addition to the increase in the proportion of stocks that are considered to be flat, the proportion of other indicators has been reduced. It is believed that the decline in the proportion of each share is different from that in November, and the increase in the proportion of decline makes the monthly prosperity index of this month show a downward trend.
The sample company's forecast for the next month's prosperity shows that the sample company's judgment on its operating status in the next month in December: 20.9% thinks that its operating status will stabilize, 51.2% think it will be flat, and 27.9% think it will fall. The overall judgment of the sample enterprises on the next month's prosperity of the stone industry is: 25.6% think it will rise, 53.5% think it will be flat, and 20.9% think it will fall. Compared with November, it is believed that the proportion of these two indicators will continue to rise next month. It can be seen that the business conditions and industry prosperity of the company will continue to show a downward trend next month.
Second, the monthly price index point of view
According to system monitoring, the stone price index closed at 95.85 points in December, up 0.17 points month on month, up by about 0.18%. This month, the stone price index stopped falling slightly. The monthly price index was 100.16 points, slightly higher than the price of the same period last year. Among them, the prices of granite and other stone materials continued to rise, and the prices of marble and synthetic marble increased slightly. From the trend of the weekly price index, the price climbed this month, the lowest price in the first week, and the highest price in the last week.
The price index on marble this month closed at 96.63 points, up by 0.09 points from November, up by about 0.09%, and the price rebounded slightly. The monthly price index was 99.38 points, still lower than the price of the same period last year. This month, the marble price index showed a continuous upward trend, with the highest price at the end of the month. The price of finished marble and block materials this month was the same as that of the previous month, and the price of large plates rose slightly. They were reported at: 97.37, 103.1, and 93.22 points respectively. This month, a small part of the inventory of marble blocks and large plates price reduction treatment, there are also a small number of marble slabs, new polished, only small digging, beautiful colors, no obvious running flowers, the price is significantly raised. In general, the price of marble this month has been slightly pushed up.
The price index of granite this month closed at 89.25 points, which was flat from the previous month. The price of granite has stabilized this month. The monthly price index was 101.43 points, still higher than the same period last year. The price of granite has been stable this month, and there is no fluctuation in weekly prices. The prices of blocks, slabs and finished products were the same as last month, and were closed at 76.32, 100 and 89.06 respectively.
The price of synthetic marble closed at 101.79 points this month, up 0.71 points month on month, up 0.7%, and the monthly price index was 100.7 points. Compared with the same period last year, the price has increased. This week's weekly price index showed a trend of rising in the first three weeks and stabilizing in the fourth week. In addition to the large rebound in the price of large plates, the prices of finished products and blocks were flat, and closed at 99.95, 103.16 and 119.79 points respectively.
The price index of other stone products closed at 90.00 points this month and continued to be stable. The monthly price index was 100.0 points, which was the same as that of the same period last year. The price trend of other stone materials remained stable this month, and the weekly price did not fluctuate. The prices of jade, quartz stone and travertine were the same as last month, and were closed at 90, 99.8 and 96 points respectively.
Third, the main factors affecting the prosperity of the stone industry
The December economy continued its downward trend in November, falling again and falling all the way. As the year is approaching, with the suspension of infrastructure and engineering projects, the stone boom has once again declined. According to the survey results, overall, the indicators of this month have stabilized and declined. About 50% of the sample companies believe that the indicators are flat this month, while more than 1/3 think that the chain is decreasing (or unreasonable). From the perspective of various indicators: (1) Orders have been significantly reduced. Nearly one-third of sample companies this month believe that orders are decreasing, and more than 50% are considered to be flat. At the end of the year, most enterprises were busy completing the orders they had previously undertaken, and they gradually entered the closing stage, and some of them continued to sprint their performances. However, the number of new orders was very limited, so the orders at the end of the year were significantly reduced, and the output was correspondingly reduced. (2) Inventories showed an increase in momentum. This month, the ratio of stocks to a flat ratio was 58.1%, which was relatively high. However, it was considered that the proportion of reasonable ratios decreased, and the proportion of unreasonable proportions increased, and the inventory increased. (3) Employment shows a trend of differentiation. More than 20% of sample companies in this month believe that the employment ratio is decreasing, about 65% think that the chain is flat, and about 10% think that the chain is increasing. It can be seen that the employment has decreased this month but it is still relatively stable and shows a trend of differentiation. As the year is approaching, the production of enterprises has been gradually reduced, and the demand for employment has declined. However, a small number of enterprises have rushed to complete the unfinished orders before the end of the year, and the demand for employment has increased.
In December, the fluctuation rate of the stone boom index expanded, falling below 100 points, and the economy was general, which meant that the market situation was not very optimistic. On the one hand, the regulation of the real estate market is not relaxed. Since September 2017, the growth of real estate sales has turned negative, and the property market has clearly entered a contraction period. The result of the sluggish real estate market is that the stone market is “sellingâ€. On the other hand, the price of blocks and processing accessories has risen, resulting in the cost of processed stone materials is only high, which seriously affects the further expansion of the stone market. To explore the reasons for the rising prices of raw materials in the stone industry, environmental protection issues are among the first, and the frenzy of environmental protection has swept across the country, and almost the entire stone industry chain has been entangled in this storm. The regulation of the national macro-policy is also the reason for the price increase. The announcement of the “limitation order†stipulates that the vehicle has a height limit of 4 meters, which means that a 17.5-meter-long car cannot carry a 40-meter high cabinet on the road, and the original product that can be transported by the whole vehicle. Now it is divided into a number of small cars, the transportation cost of the enterprise directly increases, which almost leads to a direct increase of nearly 15% in the price of all raw materials in the stone production chain; the national tax “business reformâ€, the business tax is directly raised from 3% to 17%. The original part of reasonable tax avoidance has been illegal, and compliance companies have to include taxes as well. Costs continue to rise, profits are thin, and pressure on engineering companies increases.
Fourth, the market trend forecast
According to the statistical results, the overall judgment of the sample enterprises on the next month's prosperity of the stone industry in December is: 53.5% think it will be flat; 25.6% think it will rise, and the proportion will decrease slightly; 20.9% think it will fall. From the perspective of the company's forecast of its own operating conditions next month, it can be seen that the company has insufficient confidence in the market outlook and the market outlook is negative. It is expected that the stone boom index will continue to fall in January next year.
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