The post-holiday steel price forecast indicates a complex and uncertain market outlook. Before the holiday, domestic coating prices were on an upward trend due to rising steel mill costs. However, despite this increase, market demand did not follow suit, leading to a challenging environment for businesses and manufacturers. Sales remained sluggish, with many players adopting a wait-and-see approach as prices continued to rise.
Looking at the current situation, downstream purchases before the holiday showed little improvement, and normal buying activity was maintained, but the rising prices have made buyers hesitant. In the short term, the support from downstream sectors is weak, while steel mills remain strong, leaving businesses caught in a difficult position. Overall, market sales pressure still exists, inventory levels are manageable, but the combination of poor demand and high costs has significantly affected stocking decisions.
It is expected that major steel mills will keep their ex-factory prices stable after the holiday. Based on this, the post-holiday market is likely to continue its weak adjustment trend. Below, we analyze several key factors influencing the market:
1. **Production Capacity Pressure and Market Adjustment**
In January to August 2013, the output of plating plates reached 27.962 million tons, up 10.8% from the previous month, while coated plate output fell by 11.5%. Despite this decline, export volumes for coated plates increased by 16.8% during the same period. The downstream manufacturing sector saw a slight rise in demand, but construction-related demand remained weak, affecting overall domestic consumption. Meanwhile, exports improved significantly, especially to Southeast Asian countries, which helped boost production. However, this also created pressure on the domestic market, particularly regarding price balance between domestic and international markets. After the holiday, the production pressure for coated plates is expected to remain high, while the demand from downstream sectors may not show significant improvement in the short term.
2. **Long Process Costs and Private Enterprise Operations**
Starting from June, steel mills began raising prices for HRC products, which led to a steady decline in the operating rates of private enterprises. Some companies reported rates below 25%. As upstream products generate more profit, downstream companies face increasing pressure. Currently, the utilization rate for coated products is low, with galvanized output averaging around 80%, and color-coated production between 40-50%. With some plants shut down, utilization rates are expected to drop further. Although coated product supply is controlled and prices are positive, steel mills are also passing on risks to downstream companies, making it harder for them to compete effectively.
3. **Wait-and-See Sentiment in Price Adjustments**
Currently, market prices are at an intermediate level compared to the 2007–2012 period, with a slight increase in steel mill ex-factory prices. Based on iron ore prices, the production cost for SPHC (upstream material for coated coils) is around 3,550 yuan per ton, plus additional costs, bringing the final price to approximately 4,650 yuan per ton. Some hot coil producers are bidding near this level, but opinions among manufacturers vary—private factories believe prices could still fall, while businesses remain cautious. Additionally, increased exports of coated plates, especially to Southeast Asia, have raised concerns, and there are indications that China may re-launch anti-dumping investigations in November. This could impact future market expectations and adjustments.
4. **Post-Holiday Expectations in the Domestic Color Coating Market**
Historically, after the Chinese New Year, the market tends to see a “good start†with prices rising. However, this year shows no clear policy support or significant funding inflow, leading to weaker overall expectations. While the National Day holiday saw a slight upward trend, the duration of the price increase varied. Compared to previous years, the current market environment is different: demand has not been strong, with many buyers waiting for clarity; steel mill costs remain high, causing repeated price fluctuations without clear opportunities; and market funds are tighter than before, reducing trading activity. Given these factors, post-holiday price adjustments are likely to be weaker, but not extreme, aligning with current market conditions and buyer sentiment.
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