Weekly Market Review:
This week, the aluminum market remained relatively quiet, with no major news driving strong price movements. The domestic spot price saw a slight rise followed by a decline, keeping the overall trend neutral. Base metals, including aluminum, showed limited directional shifts.
Over the past week, the spot price of aluminum remained largely sideways, with only minor fluctuations. The domestic aluminum price edged lower slightly, while the Shanghai-Hong Kong ratio fell to around 7.8, signaling continued pressure on the market.
In terms of inventory, aluminum stock levels remained high, which has been a key factor in keeping prices under pressure. The number of canceled warehouse receipts decreased gradually, and previous inventory reductions were still significant, indicating ongoing destocking trends.
Looking at price analysis, aluminum prices remain in a tight range, oscillating between key support and resistance levels. The critical level of 1750 was recently broken, leaving the price vulnerable to further declines. The next support is below 1750, with resistance forming around 1850.
The Shanghai Aluminum futures continue to trade within a downtrend channel, showing a short-term consolidation phase. After five weeks of adjustment, the key support level now lies below 14,200, with stronger support near 13,700. Resistance is expected around 14,500.
For next week, the market is expected to remain cautious. While this week’s trading was calm, external markets experienced a sharp drop over the weekend, raising concerns about potential further declines after the current consolidation period. The issue of excess production capacity in electrolytic aluminum remains unresolved, and it's unclear whether this will lead to any meaningful improvement in the upstream industry.
Currently, the Shanghai aluminum price is still in a weak sideways trend, with no clear sign of a reversal. The 1800 level remains uncertain, and the market is watching closely for any signals of a bottoming out.
Starting from mid-next week, a series of important economic data releases will be released globally, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and policy statements will also be closely monitored. These events are likely to increase market volatility. Unless there are major surprises in the data, aluminum prices may not escape another round of declines. This is for informational purposes only.Draft
Draft
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