Local GDP data is always higher than the central water

An unreasonable GDP data: local “forces pressure” national average annual increase of trillions

The GDP that has been favored for nearly 30 years and is the greatest invention of the twentieth century in the eyes of the economist Samuelson is gradually losing its aura.

On June 28th, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, pointed out that to improve the methods of assessment, it is no longer possible to simply talk about heroes with the growth rate of GDP. Today, our total GDP has leapt to the second place in the world, and behind this is the extensive development model that has been delayed for many years. The story of the "exchange mother" has been passed down to the present: the two mothers who care for their children at home do not produce GDP. Assuming that the exchanges are paid by both parties, GDP is generated, and the child's suffering can be completely ignored.
Fraud sample

A beautiful transcript does not fit the actual feelings of the people. Where is the problem?

The local economy always looks more optimistic than the central government, at least in numbers.

In 2012, the total gross domestic product (GDP) calculated by the provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) reached 57.69 trillion yuan, 5.76 trillion yuan higher than the 2012 initial accounting GDP of 51.93 trillion yuan announced by the National Bureau of Statistics. It is equivalent to an additional economic aggregate in Guangdong Province.

According to media reports, the sum of GDP in the provinces in 2009 was 2.68 trillion yuan higher than the GDP announced by the National Bureau of Statistics; in 2010 it was 3.2 trillion yuan higher, and in 2011 it was 4.6 trillion yuan higher, plus 5.76 trillion last year. Yuan, this difference has increased by almost 1 trillion yuan per year.

However, the central government is trying to play down the pursuit of GDP. The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly shows that the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” sets the economic growth target to 7%, and structural reform is better than pure economic growth.

An official letter system official in the central region said that the local enthusiasm for GDP is clearly higher than the central government, because the central government is more concerned about economic development, but local governments are more concerned about the "official hat."

Local GDP is "forced" centrally

Since the GDP data were calculated at the national and local levels in 1985, the total local statistics has always been higher than the total GDP released by the National Bureau of Statistics. It not only presents a “1+1>2” situation, but also has an increasing trend.

After detailed analysis of the 2012 data, it was found that the national GDP increased by 7.8% year-on-year, while in the local provinces, except for Beijing and Shanghai, the growth rate was higher than the national level.

According to the difference in the central data of GDP, Xu Fengxian, a regional economic research expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the regional GDP growth rate is higher than the national and regional GDP is greater than the national total. This is mainly caused by two reasons: First, because the local and central statistics are There are slightly different calibers, and there are repeated calculations in the region. Second, GDP growth is closely linked to local performance appraisal. Local governments are chasing high GDP growth, so that the data “fills water”.

Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, previously said that the current sum of GDP is higher than the national accounting, mainly because of some technical problems in the grading accounting and the difference between the original data.

In order to solve this problem, since last year, the National Bureau of Statistics has realized nearly 700,000 “three-up” enterprises (industrial enterprises above designated size, wholesale and retail accommodation enterprises above designated size, construction enterprises and real estate development enterprises within the qualifications). Directly report the statistical data networking of grassroots enterprises on the national unified electronic network platform.

Even so, most local governments still use investment as the main driving force of the internal economy. The vice governor of a certain province in the central region told the Daily Economic News reporter that “the country’s GDP target is set at 7% to 8%. We are not economically strong. Province, so the goal must exceed 10%, and the economic situation is not good, we have to be more urgent."

From the middle of the year, the macroeconomic situation this year is more repeated and tortuous than the beginning of the year. The deputy governor said that relying on infrastructure investment and industrial parks, the GDP target should be completed.

Statistics Bureau denounces fabricated GDP

Compared with the one-sided pursuit of speed, statistical fraud is one of the means of some local governments to increase GDP, even more disgraceful.

In the middle and late February of last year, the National Bureau of Statistics officially launched the “set of tables” network direct reporting system, which changed the data layer reporting mode, allowing the National Bureau of Statistics to grasp local data truthfully. However, this system does not eliminate local violations.

In the first half of this year, the National Bureau of Statistics disclosed that the Bureau of Statistics Enforcement and Inspection Office conducted a verification on the statistics and falsification of Henglan Town, Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province, and the total industrial output value of the industrial enterprises that were sampled was 2.22 billion yuan. It was falsely reported by the local government as 8.51 billion yuan.

A few days ago, Ma Jiantang once again sent a letter to the person in charge of the company and the statisticians, painfully saying "false history", pointing out that there are still statistical frauds in some places, and enumerating a variety of fraudulent practices. "In some places, there are still interventions in the network. Independent reporting phenomenon, some fabricating false data of enterprises, some require enterprises to fill in false data, some generations fill in and report enterprise data, and a few enterprises also have statistical violations, some fail to report materials according to national regulations, and some passively report falsehoods. data".

A statistical system person said that at the current stage of the economic downturn, the possibility of local fraud is greater than that during the economic upswing, and the authenticity of statistical data is particularly important, because the basic business data is the most important basis for the national consultation economy. This is also the main reason for Ma Jiantang to write again.

"In fact, local fraud is very good, as long as the reported business data and the actual tax payment of the company can be seen at a glance, the data is true and false." A grassroots statistician told reporters.

The above-mentioned officials of the Economic and Information Committee said that statistical fraud is obviously not the responsibility of the statistical department, because under the current GDP assessment, the economic growth target is also decentralized.

A test of the gold content of GDP

At the National Organizational Work Conference held at the end of last month, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized that in the assessment of cadres, it is necessary to improve the means of assessment, not only to look at development but also to look at the foundation, to see both performance and potential, and to improve people’s livelihood. Social progress, ecological benefits and other indicators and performances as an important assessment content, can no longer simply talk about heroes in terms of GDP growth rate.

Cheng Enfu, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that measuring the degree of economic development and economic strength is not just about looking at GDP indicators. First, it depends on the income of the people, the level of living, the quality of life, and the level of "happiness." The gold content of GDP, pure GDP growth is meaningless.

Based on the calculation formula proposed by Yang Kaizhong, a professor at Peking University, the China Economic Research Institute has launched “the ranking of GDP in each province, district and city” for four consecutive years, trying to reflect the quality of economic development in various provinces in recent years.

The calculation formula of GDP gold content is “per capita disposable income/per capita GDP”. In the final list, GDP growth rate is not directly related to GDP gold content.

The top five provinces in terms of GDP in 2012 are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Henan, and their corresponding GDP gold content ranks third, 19th, 26th, 4th, and 24th. Although the total GDP of Shandong and Henan is ahead, the gold content of GDP is lower.

Yu Qiao, a professor at the School of Public Administration of Tsinghua University, told reporters that the GDP assessment is very important to officials at present, mainly because the central and local governments now attach importance to the economy. Only when the local GDP growth rate is high, will there be enough tax to do public services and build subways. Jianlian renting a house. At the same time, Yu Qiao also believes that ordinary people may not care about the local GDP growth rate, and even income is not the most important factor, and water, air and environmental quality, as well as the true level of welfare and happiness will be more concerned by the people.

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