China Energy Or ​​Welcomes Warm Spring

The slowdown in the national economy in 2012 slowed down the demand for electricity, coal, and petroleum, and other major energy industries. The demand for electricity, coal, and petroleum declined in different degrees, and the growth rate of electric power fell. Coal and oil prices fell.

Because of this, summing up the energy situation in 2012, analyzing and judging China's energy trends in 2013, and providing scientific references for relevant departments to formulate control policies are particularly critical.

Electricity consumption has slowed down. According to a report released by the National Energy Administration of the People's Republic of China (Fuk-Fu), China's electricity consumption totaled 4,959.1 billion kwh in 2012, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%.

"Although the total electricity consumption has increased, the growth rate has dropped by 6.2 percentage points from the same period last year," said Zhang Jinliang, Ph.D., director of the Energy and Environmental Policy Research Center at Beijing Institute of Technology. "The electricity consumption of the entire society is showing a slow growth. The situation."

The research report on China's Power Demand Analysis and Trend Forecasting in 2013 published recently by the center provides a detailed analysis of the reasons for the slowdown in electricity consumption growth. The report pointed out that in addition to being affected by the macro economy, the effects of factors such as industrial restructuring and energy conservation and emission reduction policies are also reflected in changes in electricity consumption.

“The second industry's electricity consumption is the main force driving the growth of electricity consumption in the entire society, but the proportion of electricity used by the second industry last year was down year-on-year. It has driven the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society by 6 percentage points year-on-year. "Zhang Jinliang said. At the same time, with the increase in energy-saving and emission-reduction efforts, the growth rate of electricity use in the four high-energy-consuming industries such as chemicals, building materials, steel, and non-ferrous metals also saw a sharp decline.

“The change in the structure of electricity consumption shows that the optimization and transformation of the industrial structure has achieved initial results,” said Yang Cuihong, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematics and Systems Science at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

This benign situation will also continue this year. Zhang Jinliang and others believe that the economic situation in 2013 will improve, and the demand for electricity will continue to increase, and the growth rate will increase from 2012. However, the growth rate of electricity consumption will still be lower than the GDP growth rate, and the consumption structure will be further optimized.

"Coal boss" can breathe a sigh of relief In 2012, the days of China's coal industry are not too good. In 2012, the downturn in the coal downstream industries such as steel, cement, and electricity led to weak demand for coal. At the same time, the thermal power industry that accounts for 60% of coal consumption in China has also seen negative growth since April 2012.

In addition to “internal concerns”, “outside concerns” also continue. Due to the decline in coal prices in the international market, China's coal imports increased significantly in the first half of last year. This has led to a high level of coal inventories among domestic coal companies, ports and power companies.

In 2013, the degree of prosperity of China's coal industry remains uncertain. "On the one hand, the demand for electric coal is greatly affected by hydroelectricity; on the other hand, due to the lower price of the international coal market, China's imported coal will continue to grow, hitting the domestic market." Yang Cuihong said in an analysis.

At the same time, Yang Cuihong also pointed out that as the effect of the steady growth policy of the country gradually emerges, the demand for coal from industries such as steel and cement will increase, and this will probably boost the prosperity of the coal industry.

“We expect the coal industry will see an upward trend after the second quarter of 2013.”

Energy Security: There is also a long-term need for energy security. In recent years, China has successively introduced a series of policies and policies to ensure the country’s energy security. Among them, the “12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development” mentioned that it is necessary to safely and efficiently develop coal and conventional oil and gas resources, strengthen the exploration and development of shale gas and coalbed methane, and actively and orderly develop renewable energy such as hydropower and wind energy and solar energy.

In terms of energy supply, China has proposed a diversified energy import policy to diversify import risks. According to the national strategic oil reserve plan, by 2020 China will achieve a scale of about 100 million tons of oil reserves, while coal will reach at least 200 million tons.

“All kinds of policies have played a positive role. According to our calculations, China’s comprehensive index of energy security has shown a trend of upward volatility in the past decade or so.” Zhang Yuejun, associate professor of Beijing Institute of Technology, said, “In 2013, this kind of The trend will continue."

However, he also admitted that in terms of supply security, China and the United States, Germany and other developed countries still have a clear gap. "China's energy security, especially the oil security situation, is not optimistic. Therefore, in the process of safeguarding China's energy security, we should also formulate reasonable and feasible plans to actively promote energy market reforms and ensure energy supply."