Abstract The monthly report released by the Netherlands Economic Policy Research Bureau on the 21st shows that global trade volume rose for the second consecutive month in October, indicating that the global economy is accelerating. According to foreign reports, the report of the Dutch Economic Policy Research Institute shows that global trade volume increased by 0 in October...
According to a monthly report released by the Dutch Economic Policy Research Institute on the 21st, global trade volume rose for the second consecutive month in October, indicating that the global economy is accelerating. According to foreign reports, the Dutch Economic Policy Research Bureau reported that global trade volume increased by 0.4% in October and by 0.7% in September. The previously calculated volume of trade in September increased by 0.8%.
The Dutch Economic Policy Research Institute stated that the growth in trade volume is driven by developing economies. Imports from developing economies have grown rapidly, but imports from developed economies have remained unchanged. Exports from developing economies are closer to the long-term average, but exports from developed economies have shrunk.
According to the report, imports from developing economies in Asia increased by 3.1% in October, imports from Central and Eastern European countries increased by 3.6%, imports from Latin America increased by 1.6%, and imports from Middle Eastern and African countries increased by 2.3%. In contrast, US imports fell by 2.8% in October, while Japanese imports fell by 9.6%.
The Dutch Bureau of Economic Policy Research's global trade volume is the earliest published indicator for measuring global trade levels and is of concern to policy makers and some central banks.
The WTO predicts that exports of goods from developed countries will increase by 1.5% in 2012, and developing countries will increase by 3.5%. In 2013, global trade volume is expected to increase by 4.5%, still lower than the average annual growth rate of 5.4% in the past 20 years.
The HSBC Holdings report shows that despite the slowdown in global economic growth, it will not lead to a wide range of trade protectionism, and global trade will recover moderately in 2013. The report predicts that due to the increasingly active commercial trade activities among emerging economies, global trade will grow by about 5% next year. From 2014 to 2016, global trade growth will rise to 6% to 7%.
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