Where is the force of the methanol market in the northwest region?

For the methanol market, it may not be possible for any storms. On Saturday, the Ningxia Baofeng Energy Olefin Plant, which has attracted market attention, broke the internal news: “October in the afternoon on October 31st at 5:20 pm. It is expected that the product will be on the 3rd of November.” This message is undoubtedly in the doldrums. The methanol market sparked a glimmer of hope. However, various suspicions such as installation problems and failures of investment yesterday filled the market. For a time, Baofeng energy olefins equipment is difficult to distinguish between true and false, the future force of the northwestern methanol market plagued the entire methanol ring.

According to a reporter from the ** Daily News, since the beginning of this year, the methanol market in the northwest region has continued to decline, and so far it has not yet shaken off its low-level oscillation. In particular, after the end of October, the inventory of the northwest manufacturers continued to be high, and some manufacturers faced the danger of becoming a library at one time. Even if the price has dropped below 2,000 yuan/ton, the effect is still not satisfactory. What worries the market is that as winter approaches, transportation will become one of the major problems that affect the sale of methanol. If it is not possible to effectively consume the methanol before it is frozen on the road, the northwestern enterprises will also face cuts in production or inflation.

It is worth mentioning that in recent years, most of China's new methanol production capacity is located in the northwest region. This year's new and downstream methanol production in the region is more eye-catching, which is undoubtedly an important weight to support market confidence in the region.

“This year, five sets of methanol-to-olefins plants will begin production in the northwest. They are Ningxia Coal II, Ningxia Baofeng, China Coal Yulin, Yanchang Yulin and Shaanxi Pucheng, and five sets of 3.5 million tons/year methanol-to-olefins plants. With the commencement of construction of these devices, the production and sales structure of the export of methanol in the northwest will be changed, which will greatly increase the consumption of the region.” Yu Yusen, a methanol analyst at Zhongyu Information, said.

However, although there are many new installations in the Northwest region this year, the methanol market in the region has not been stabilized due to various factors such as the inconsistent start of upstream and downstream plants and poor stability of new installations.

According to Zhong Yali, an analyst at Central Plains, as of November, there are 5.2 million tons of methanol-to-olefins plants in the northwestern region, but these enterprises are not yet perfect with Shenhua Huaning Coal Methanol Co. There are no additional new requirements. "If the methanol plant malfunctions and the olefin plant starts to drive, then the methanol will be purchased. If the olefin plant is parked and the methanol plant is driven, the methanol will be exported. These plant installations have a great influence on the price of methanol in the northwest region and will increase the volatility of methanol. It is a double-edged sword.” Cai Yali frankly admitted to the ** Daily reporter.

The news that Ningxia Baofeng olefins plant is driving recently is undoubtedly one of the key links in the current market. It is understood that the company has a total of 1.8 million tons of coal-to-methanol plant, which has been put into production in August this year. According to market sources, it was confirmed in many aspects that its 600,000 tons of methanol-made olefins equipment had indeed been successfully tested yesterday. The company's methanol plant is first exported after it is put into operation, and the olefin plant is mainly used for olefin plant after driving. If there is excess undigested methanol, it will need to be exported. From this point of view, after the olefin plant is put into production, the company's methanol sales will certainly be reduced, which will also boost the methanol price in the region. Yesterday the market suspicions about Baofeng's olefins plant driving, the industry generally believes that this is inseparable from the present situation in which the domestic methanol market has entered a white-hot atmosphere. “We hope that Baofeng can drive as scheduled, not only can Baofeng methanol be no longer exported, but also cause Ningxia to introduce other northwestern methanol to ease market pressure. The empty side believes that the opening of Baofeng olefin plant is only '*** 'The current olefin market is sluggish. Even if it is successful, the operating rate of the equipment will be greatly reduced, and it is not surprising that its profitability has been overwhelmed.' Yu Yusen said.

At present, the winter is approaching, and the northwest needs more demand to ease the slow-moving situation of methanol in the region. In addition to the smooth export, the local can only hope to start the situation of olefins. According to Yu Sen’s prediction, the day when the APEC meeting ended, it was the time when the methanol in the northwest region and the Bohai Sea region had rebounded. At that time, the huge demand in the Bohai Rim will gradually increase, which will support the export of methanol in the northwest.

In addition, according to Lun Sen, if Baofeng olefins plants are successfully opened, continued outsourcing of Ningxia will reduce the pressure of shipping in the northwest region. After one month of operation, the load of olefins has been raised to a certain level, and methanol is consumed. It will be considerable, and the trend of methanol drop in the northwest region will be eased.